NLCS Game 5

Looks like the Cubs kept from being swept.  They need 3 more wins in a row.  If every game is even steven, 50/50, their chances of advancing to the World Series is:

P(Cubs win NLCS)  = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8

Not every game will be a 50/50 matchup.  Here are lines for tonight’s game.

DATE 10_19 8:00_PM LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.600 ] < 0.608 >
STARTAWAY 8.27(0.713) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.417 ] < 0.408 >
STARTHOME 0.88(0.521) Jose_Quintana_TOT
------------------------------------
LAN 104 58 CHN 92 70
DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 LAN

If this were a regular season game LAN would have a 63.1% chance just from the win/loss records between the two teams.  We would deviate from there.  According to our studies, the regular season deltaWAA table does not apply to the playoff season.

If playoff Clayton Kershaw comes out to pitch tonight like he did in NLCS  Game 6 last year this becomes a 50/50 game or the Cubs could even be favored.   Right now we can’t make any assumptions other than using regular season numbers.  CC Sabathia, a playoff problem pitcher, has pitched well for NYA in the playoffs so far this year as well as Masahiro Tanaka who had a bad regular season.  Lester is pitching far better than his regular season numbers.  Lester has a very positive history in the playoff season.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+023+ 2.79 133.3 2.63 19 5 Jon_Lester_TOT PITCH

The above doesn’t include his data for the playoffs this year.  In December when we get the 2017 playoff data Lester should rise a few notches from rank #23 of all players in the playoffs since 1903.  Past results don’t affect future results.  Past results can  only show capability.

With the disparity between these two starters, the Ouija Board looks right where our simulation would end up had we finished the code.  This will be an off season work in progress and maybe we’ll show some study results every now and then.  If the Cubs win tonight we’ll be back doing this Saturday, and if not, Oh well.  Until then….