ALCS Game 7

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in. Tonight is game 7 ALCS and I didn’t want to comment on this anymore but there might be an interesting clue here about the betting markets;. Here is tonight’s game according to the market.

DATE 10_21 8:00_PM NYA HOU
LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.463 ] < 0.461 >
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.558 ] < 0.559 >
STARTHOME 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU

The above is tonight’s game.  Two possibly Tier 2 or Tier 3 starting pitchers.  Both HOU and NYA have Tier 1 lineups so this is a 50/50 game with NYA having a relief advantage.    These same two starters pitched against each other 5 days ago in New York.  Here is what the markets said about that game on 10/16.

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.465 ] < 0.450 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.556 ] < 0.569 >
STARTHOME 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA

Our analysis then is about the same  except HOU is now favored and by almost the same amount.  There is a concept of home field advantage and home field irrational exuberance.  It’s difficult to discern the two and for now a one game series like this, who knows.  Something to look into in the off season.

And finally, below is the playoff horse race table of the 10 MLB teams in the playoffs this year.  After tonight it will be … and then there are two.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
WAS 22.21 32.34 21.09 11.25 54.55 32
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
CLE 19.30 28.61 17.35 11.26 47.91 42
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 10.42 31.72 19.90 11.82 42.14 46
ARI 15.99 24.49 15.98 8.51 40.48 24
CHN 18.85 19.74 7.41 12.33 38.59 22
COL 19.80 7.53 -0.11 7.64 27.33 12
BOS 7.56 19.71 8.69 11.02 27.27 24
MIN 9.41 -4.08 -6.51 2.43 5.33 8