Lineup Relief Table Part 1

Finally got first results of lineup-relief.  Doing this required recompiling the entire daily database.  In order to estimate relief value you have to know  the current set of relievers on a team for each day.  Rosters were estimated using the event data from retrosheet.org.

After knowing the roster we can separate relief staffs into our tier system and run that against lineups.  Here are the average runs scored by the lineup for each lineup – relief pair.

Lineup-Relief # Games Avg Runs
1-1 2085 1.33
1-2 2354 1.37
1-3 5810 1.42
1-4 2661 1.43
1-5 3253 1.57
2-1 1828 1.24
2-2 1872 1.31
2-3 4292 1.32
2-4 1740 1.45
2-5 2068 1.45
3-1 5501 1.13
3-2 5238 1.21
3-3 11466 1.24
3-4 4328 1.32
3-5 5105 1.40
4-1 2815 1.15
4-2 2670 1.16
4-3 5226 1.22
4-4 1993 1.27
4-5 2270 1.27
5-1 2696 1.08
5-2 2638 1.10
5-3 5174 1.07
5-4 1835 1.10
5-5 2000 1.25

The Avg Runs above is the number of runs scored in relief per game.  Column 2 is the number of games in this tier combo for this study.  Column one is the lineup – relief tier combo.

3-3 is a completely average lineup against an average relief staff.  The lineup starter combo table published here shows a 3-3 pair has an average of 4.6 runs scored in 9 innings.    If you divide by games instead of innings pitched that number is 3.11 per game.  Adding 1.24 from the 3-3 row above places the average runs scored per game at about 4.35 runs per game which is almost the real average.

Highlighted in green shows the range from worst lineup against best relief to best lineup against worst relief goes from a low of 1.08 to a high of 1.57.  This isn’t very much of a range probably due to the fact that relief pitchers pitch only a third of the innings that starters pitch.  It might make more sense to use runs/innings pitched in these tables.  Tier 1 starters will pitch more innings per game than Tier 5 starters.  We’ll redo these tables later.  We know the innings pitched for both starters and relievers.

Below is a schmoo of best-worst lineup relief to worst-best by selecting rows from the above table.

Lineup-Relief # Games Avg Runs
1-5 3253 1.57
2-4 1740 1.45
3-3 11466 1.24
4-2 2670 1.16
5-1 2696 1.08

Update: I’m a little behind on all of this.  There is an interesting article from Bill James that we will look at and we also need to analyze MVP, Cy Young, and best reliever AL/NL picks which happened awhile ago.  Like All Star picks these are voted on by people who have  biases.  tl;dr We’re 3/4 on MVP, 2/2 picking Cy Young and 2/2 on best reliever for each league.  Only outlier is Jose Altuve which will tie in nicely with the Bill James’ article on WAR.  More to come and we’re almost done with lineup-relief combo tables and ready for simulations and then running the results against the real daily lines.  Until then….