Way too early in the season to evaluate players or team status. Team statuses will start to make sense in about 2 weeks and we’ll start sorting players and handicapping second week in May. For now let’s look at what the Ouija Board says about today.
DATE 04_06 8:10_PM CHN MIL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.588 ] < 0.580 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.429 ] < 0.439 >
STARTHOME 0.00(NA) Brandon_Woodruff_MIL
CHN 92 70 MIL 86 76
DELTAWAA 12 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
We call the betting market a Ouija Board because thousands of bettors all move the market in each direction. Where that market settles is the expected probability that all these people settled upon. Like a Ouija board settles on a phrase from the beyond, the beyond somehow comes ups with an expected probability that is very accurate in most games. How all these anonymous bettors can come up with this is a mystery.
The Cubs started at 58.8% chance of winning and dropped to 58%. If you want to bet the Brewers you must think they have a greater than 43.9% chance of winning today.
The DeltaWAA line is using last year’s win loss results. The Cubs had a real WAA of 92-70=22. The Brewers’ real WAA was 86-76=10. The DeltaWAA between the two teams is 22-10=12. This gets looked up in a table and the resultant expected probability using these numbers would be 58.2% in favor of the Cubs. Perhaps Vegas compiled the same table and that’s how they set the line today. Who knows?
Usually we would add up lineups and relief staff and provide that data but there is no data yet. All we can do is analyze the two starters and that’s that. Woodruff doesn’t have an MLB career yet. He pitched in AAA and 43 innings in MLB for MIL last season. Not enough data!
We know Kyle Hendricks but here are his career numbers.
In order to bet the Cubs you would need 7-10% margin which means they have a 2/3 chance of winning today. To bet the Brewers you would have to think they have better than 50/50. Using career numbers the Cubs have a better team and we’re almost ready to present that data. Is it 2/3 chance better. Not sure. With the data we have the Brewers are underdog and the line is most likely exactly where it should be. Both lines a complete discard. We do not want to gamble.