Cubs Cardinals Matchup

45F is way too cold to play baseball but apparently they’ll try and get this game over with today after two postponed games.  We’re almost at the point in the season where we can do team status but let’s skip that for now.  We’ll focus on current SLN players the Cubs will face for the rest of the season.

First let’s look at what the Ouija Board says:

DATE 04_19 2:20_PM SLN CHN
LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.505 ] < 0.481 >
STARTAWAY XXXXX Luke_Weaver_SLN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.519 ] < 0.541 >
STARTHOME XXXXX Jon_Lester_CHN
------------------------------------
SLN 10 7 CHN 7 8
DELTAWAA 4 WINPCT 0.542 SLN

The Cards are 10-7, Cubs 7-8, and the DeltaWAA is +4 in favor of the Cardinals.  Per our lookup table this gives SLN a  54.2% advantage today with no other information.  The Cubs have one of their best starters pitching and the Cardinals have a relatively new guy who pitched 60 innings last season.  The above shows the betting market may have soured on the Cubs a bit as Lester usually commands 60% + for home games.  We’ll have better trajectories on this as the season progresses this year.

A DeltaWAA of 0.542 almost makes SLN a betting opportunity today being at 0.481.  We need a margin of at least 0.07 so it doesn’t quite cut it plus we don’t have a firm grasp of  how these players are performing this season.  That information is needed to push the DeltaWAA needle in either direction.  Player rankings can start around May 7.

Let’s drill down into the Cardinals’ opening day roster and check out the last 3 year career splits.  According to the table we posted a few days ago, SLN is middle of the pack of 30 teams.  Here are their total numbers.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
SLN 15.2 4.1 8.7 -4.6 19.3 0

The Cardinals are infamous for rotating new guys from their farm system and then dominating the league.  They are perennial contenders because of this.  See this post written here during the 2013 playoffs.

Career numbers don’t tell you the potential of the new guys.  New guys start at zero.  They add nothing to the Total and subtract nothing to the Total.  Everyone starts at zero.  These career numbers show strength teams have in veterans and newly established players.

That said, let’s get to it and look at the Cards’ opening day roster.

April 2018 SLN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+021+ 12.2 Carlos_Martinez_SLN SP
+XXXXX+ 0.0 Michael_Wacha_SLN SP
+XXXXX+ -0.7 Luke_Weaver_SLN SP
+XXXXX+ -2.8 Adam_Wainwright_SLN SP
Total 8.7

Again, these are 2015-2017 career splits *not* total career value. What have you done for me lately. I keep panicking thinking there is a bug in the code scanning these results but they are correct. Wainwright has a very high positive total career value. He just had a bad run these last 3 years as well as Wacha. Michael Wacha was MVP of NLCS in 2013, when we first started doing all of this.

April 2018 SLN Relievers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+XXXXX+ 3.0 Tyler_Lyons_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ 1.7 Sam_Tuivailala_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ 1.6 Matthew_Bowman_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ 0.4 Ryan_Sherriff_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ -0.1 Dominic_Leone_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ -3.6 Mike_Mayers_SLN RP
+XXXXX+ -7.5 Bud_Norris_SLN RP
Total -4.5

Not familiar with the above players.  Lyons is home grown SLN  who started in 2013.  The nice thing about having high negative guys like Norris and Mayers is if they don’t pitch well they get replaced raising total relief value, if they pitch well that also raises total relief value.  In May we can do these roster tables using current year data.

Edit:  Greg Holland is pitching for SLN and not listed above.  The rosters used were from the beginning of the season.  Holland is +1.1 for 2015-2017 (missed 2016) and came to SLN from Colorado.  Next time we do this matchup we’ll have current rosters.  Probably missing a starter as well.

April 2018 SLN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+064+ 7.6 Matt_Carpenter_SLN IF
+110+ 5.5 Tommy_Pham_SLN OF
+123+ 5.0 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN OF
+XXXXX+ 2.4 Dexter_Fowler_SLN OF
+XXXXX+ 2.2 Jose_Martinez_SLN IF
+XXXXX+ 1.6 Paul_DeJong_SLN IF
+XXXXX+ -0.2 Harrison_Bader_SLN OF
+XXXXX+ -2.4 Kolten_Wong_SLN IF
+XXXXX+ -2.7 Yadier_Molina_SLN C
+XXXXX+ -4.0 Greg_Garcia_SLN IF
Total 15.0

And that about sums up  the team the Cardinals entered this season with.  They are currently playing very well — as they usually do every season.  Hopefully the Cubs can keep up with them — as they have the last three seasons.

That is all for now.  Total MLB career rankings coming soon and first Cubs team status next week — without player rankings.  Hopefully we get some Spring weather here!!!!!  Until then….