We usually do these on the first game of a series. I was going to skip this series since we don’t have enough data to properly rank players. The lines today and yesterday are kind of interesting however which is the nexus for this post.
Here’s what the Ouija Board says about today.
DATE 04_21 8:10_PM CHN COL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.556 ] < 0.574 >
STARTAWAY XXXXX Yu_Darvish_CHN
LINEHOME COL [ 0.488 ] < 0.444 >
STARTHOME XXXXX Tyler_Anderson_COL
CHN 9 8 COL 11 10
DELTAWAA 0 WINPCT 0.500 NONE
Both teams have approximately the same record so the DeltaWAA is 0 making this an even steven game based on win/loss records. Darvish has a 2015-2017 career split of +4 as shown here earlier. Here is Anderson’s career.
OK. Based on career of starters CHN has an advantage. Here is a rundown of COL BAT based on that three year career split.
The above is based on around opening day roster but should be close. COL has around +60 and CHN is around +50. Both teams have around the same value relief pitching as well.
Currently the Cubs line requires the Cubs having greater than 57.4% probability of winning, COL 44.4%. Here is the line yesterday on 4/20.
DATE 04_20 8:40_PM CHN COL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.535 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY XXXXX Kyle_Hendricks_CHN
LINEHOME COL [ 0.512 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME XXXXX Jon_Gray_COL
CHN 8 8 COL 11 9
DELTAWAA 2 WINPCT 0.508 COL
This is as even steven as betting lines get. Each team is equal with a probability of 51.2%. We aren’t ready to look at current year data but with the three year split Hendricks (+13.1) is far superior to Gray (-1.1). Eyeballing this Hendricks would be considered Tier 1, Gray perhaps Tier 4. With the hitting and relief about the same CHN should have had a clear advantage yet they have that advantage today with the market instead.
The market on the opening game of this series didn’t know what was going to happen. Hendricks pitching in the thin air of Colorado would have more issues than a normal pitcher because the balls don’t break as much. He did get shelled for 3 runs the first inning but recovered after that.
The DeltaWAA expected probability made yesterday’s game an even steven match. Hendricks would have moved the needle in favor of the Cubs as well as the lineup/starter/relief combos. Would it have moved it to 58.2% in favor of the Cubs? Can’t tell. We can only look at career data for April games and don’t have that modeled. Next month we’ll have better numbers to analyze.
That is all for now. The next part to the career series coming and a multi-part series to explain OPS and why it’s such deceptive stat. Until then….