Cubs Cardinals Matchup

This Cubs Cardinals Matchup will be the first series analysis this season with player rankings.  We’ll do these once for every new Cubs’ series.  Cubs Status was yesterday.  Since a baseball season is a slow moving marathon those will be done once a week and less often if the Cubs are moving sideways.

First let’s look at what the Ouija board has to say about tonight.

DATE 05_04 8:15_PM CHN SLN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.493 ] < 0.524 >
STARTAWAY -0.88(0.351) Jose_Quintana_CHN
LINEHOME SLN [ 0.531 ] < 0.524 >
STARTHOME 0.69(0.595) Miles_Mikolas_SLN
------------------------------------
CHN 16 12 SLN 17 12
DELTAWAA 1 WINPCT 0.508 SLN

The market began favoring SLN at 53.1% and then dropped to 52.4% for both teams.  This  means even steven, the market views this game as a coin flip.   The juice for this game, the house cut, is rather high.  Usually even steven games are 0.512 for each team.

DeltaWAA is in agreement so both lines are an easy discard — do not bet.  The betting market is usually correct and when they agree with our expected probability there is no edge on the house.  This log book mostly covers the Cubs.  Sometime this season we will have scripts that will peruse all games to find betting opportunities.

Our handicapping simulation and current year tiering scripts are not complete yet.  Based upon the tier system, Quintana is Tier 5 ( i.e. an F) and Mikolas is Tier 3 possibly Tier 2 { i.e. a C or B ).  The Cardinals have a starter advantage.

Let’s look at SLN team status.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.2 24.9 132 105 17 12 3.0 -0.7 SLN

Very similar team as the Cubs and similar records.  Unlike the Cubs SLN has a positive UR which means they give up less than average unearned runs which indicates good fielding as a team.  Still early in the season though.

We’ll skip relief squads but cutting to the chase, CHN relief is Tier 1, SLN is  Tier 3.

Let’s look at the lineups both teams will field.

CHN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05042018
0.02 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 63
0.02 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 110
-0.08 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 93
-1.18 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 107
1.01 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 95
0.38 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 87
0.63 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 98
2.06 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 112
-0.25 Jose_Quintana_CHN P 10
TOTAL WAA=2.60 PA=775 WinPct=0.565

Not bad for this time of year. That’s might be Tier 2 but probably Tier 3. This will be automated by the next Cubs series.   Don’t get too nervous about those numbers.  A baseball season is a marathon and we have 21+ more miles to run.

SLN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05042018
0.78 Tommy_Pham_SLN CF 114
-0.36 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 2B 113
0.02 Jose_Martinez_SLN 1B 119
-0.19 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 119
0.21 Yadier_Molina_SLN C 112
0.19 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF 117
0.29 Jedd_Gyorko_SLN 3B 31
0.42 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 116
-0.02 Miles_Mikolas_SLN P 14
TOTAL WAA=1.34 PA=855 WinPct=0.530

This is clearly Tier 3 or a C if you want to compare Tiers to school grades. A WAA=0 is completely average. A team with a WAA=0 will end the season 81-81 and probably won’t make the playoffs.   We don’t show rank in this report but Tommy Pham, they highest valued SLN hitter, is ranked #137.   This lineup value should be expected based upon their BAT run differential in team status.

So we have the following combos.

Tier 2 CHN lineup ===> Tier 3 SLN starter / Tier 3 SLN Relief

Tier 3 SLN lineup ===> Tier 5 CHN starter / Tier 1 CHN Relief

Normally this would be a table lookup and we would get run production on each combo but that isn’t finished yet.  If the top combo produces more runs than the second then the Cubs win — but they still have to play the game.  :-)  There will be simulation results with percentages and all that coming in the next few months.

The combos look pretty even just by eyeballing this so the Ouija board is right again which means discard.  The following are Cardinals starting and relief pitching who the Cubs will face these next few days according to rosters as defined by Wikipedia.

SLN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+005+ 2.90 Carlos_Martinez_SLN PITCH
+154+ 0.69 Miles_Mikolas_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.42 Michael_Wacha_SLN PITCH
-120- -0.73 Luke_Weaver_SLN PITCH
Total 3.28

SLN claims they only use 4 starters but pretty sure they rotate guys into the 5th slot from the relievers. The sum of the starting rotation is not meaningful. A game hinges on the value of the starter pitching that particular day.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+073+ 1.07 Jordan_Hicks_SLN PITCH
+103+ 0.90 Bud_Norris_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.00 Dominic_Leone_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Tyler_Lyons_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Luke_Gregerson_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Matthew_Bowman_SLN PITCH
-176- -0.55 Greg_Holland_SLN PITCH
Total 0.28

This is a Tier 3 average relief staff.