Cubs Marlins Matchup

Missed the first game of Cubs Marlins matchup so we’re stuck with the second.  Here’s what the Ouija board has to say about today.

DATE 05_08 8:05_PM MIA CHN
LINEAWAY MIA [ 0.328 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY -0.17(0.481) Jose_Urena_MIA TIER 3
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.710 ] < 0.615 >
MIA 13 21 CHN 17 15
MIA lineup=5 ==> CHN SP=NA / RP=1 == NA runs
CHN lineup=3 ==> MIA SP=3 / RP=3 == 4.43 runs

These Ouija board reports are getting bigger.  We now have automatic tiering for current year.  Since we don’t have simulations done we can’t generate an expected probability from tiering but we can show expected runs generated from that combo.  The CHN lineup should generate 4.43 runs based upon historical data.  Since this is a first outing this season for Jen-Ho Tseng we have no current year info on him and we can’t put him in a tier.   An unknown like this means discard both lines and call it a day.

Note:  A Tier 3 lineup (average) facing average starter and average relief is about as average as you can possibly get.  4.43 runs is almost exactly the average number of runs generated per game from 1970-2016, which is the historical dataset chosen for tiering and simulations.

Jose Urena is considered Tier 3 this season.  Here are his career numbers.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2015 -1.8 Jose_Urena_MIA PITCH -138-
2016 -3.8 Jose_Urena_MIA PITCH -029-
2017 2.1 Jose_Urena_MIA PITCH +162+
2018 -0.2 Jose_Urena_MIA PITCH XXXXX
Total -3.7

Had a decent year last season ranked #162 in the top 200.  Had a very bad 2016 so who knows how he’ll pitch this year.

Here is an article written about Jen-Ho Tseng written when he came up to start as a September call up.  Here are his minor league numbers last season.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+096+ 2.12 Jen-Ho_Tseng_CHN PITCH 0.606 aa
+169+ 1.68 Jen-Ho_Tseng_CHN PITCH 0.752 aaa

The rate is important for minors.  Tseng played for the Smokies in AA and the Iowa Cubs in AAA last season and pitched very well.  That the Cubs brought him up may mean they want him to be part of the rotation.  Not sure how they’ll manage that however.

We don’t have to list lineups anymore since we’ll be publishing Tier info.  MIA has a Tier 5 lineup which is among the worst in the league.  This will be a good chance for Tseng to establish himself.

That is all for now.  Will pickup OPS talk and we’re getting very close to finishing the simulations.  Weekly Cubs status in two days.  Until then….