Cubs Status 5/10/2018

A week has passed since we last did Cubs status.  Let’s look at team status lines for last week and this week.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
1.3 23.9 136 111 16 12 -2.0 1.8 CHN 5/3/2018
16.1 30.1 178 135 19 15 -4.2 1.2 CHN 5/10/2018

PITCH up, BAT way up, UR dropping, and the Cubs have a real WAA = 19 -15 =  +4 which is the same as last week.  The Cubs are moving sideways.  According to their run differential they should be +8 games but the MLB commissioner only cares about the W and L columns.  Cubs have been getting blowouts and losing close games.  This eventually averages out over time for most teams.

Here are the Cubs ranked in the MLB top 200.  Both PITCHers and BATters, AL and NL, are ranked together.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+005+ 2.77 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B
+050+ 1.49 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH
+059+ 1.30 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+060+ 1.30 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+080+ 1.18 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
+142+ 0.88 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+147+ 0.86 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+152+ 0.82 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+171+ 0.73 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN PITCH
+173+ 0.73 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
+174+ 0.73 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.53 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B

As expected from team status, mostly pitchers leading the Cubs.   Bryant and Rizzo laying back early in the season as well as Schwarber.  When those three move up the ladder and the pitching holds out the Cubs will do  well this season.

The following is a new report derived from Tier calculations.  Tiers range from 1 (best in league) to 5 (worst in league).  They provide context to the WAA value.

Type Tier Name_teamid
Lineups 3 CHN
SP 2 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN
SP 1 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN
Relief 1 CHN

Tiers allow for lineups, starting pitching, and relief to be placed in discrete sets that can be used to find similar matchups in the historical daily data set.  These will be used to generate average runs scored as well as an expected probability of winning.

The Cubs have a decent set of starters and Quintana has climbed back from being Tier 5 awhile ago.  Tier 3 is average or a C if you’re in school.   Darvish, on DL, would clock in as Tier 5 but he can also improve.  The valuations in this model only accurately reflect the past.   The past shows capability for the future but can’t predict it.  Past results do not affect future results.

Cubs’ relief again Tier 1 as they were the first half of last season.

That is all for now.  Cubs play the White Sox tomorrow and we’ll do a series analysis.  It’s way too early to worry about Divisional standings.  If you’re worried about the Cubs, wait until you see what poor White Sox fans must suffer.  Until then ….