Cubs White Sox Matchup

Today the Cubs play the White Sox at home at the standard 1:20 for the first of three, all day games.  The White Sox are where the Cubs were many years ago — or maybe not.  We’ll look into minor leagues next month before making any proclamations as to whether or not their fire sale last year will pay off in the future.  In the meantime, let’s look at the Ouija board.

DATE 05_11 2:20_PM CHA CHN
LINEAWAY CHA [ 0.333 ] < 0.323 >
STARTAWAY -0.42(0.434) Carson_Fulmer_CHA TIER 4
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.706 ] < 0.706 >
STARTHOME 0.73(0.601) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 2
------------------------------------
CHA 9 25 CHN 19 15
DELTAWAA 20 WINPCT 0.619 CHN
------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHA lineup=5 ==> CHN SP=2 / RP=1 == 3.83 runs
CHN lineup=3 ==> CHA SP=4 / RP=4 == 4.63 runs

The Cubs are favored at more than 2-1 which isn’t much more than what they were favored in some games with the Marlins last series.  The DeltaWAA table lookup says 0.619 which means the White Sox have a 1 – 0.619 = 0.381 chance.  The line for CHA is 0.328.  This model requires 0.328 + 0.07 = 0.408 or above to bet.  The Combo lookups give the Cubs a 0.8 run advantage in this game which is a lot.  When the simulations finish an actual percentage can be presented to put the run numbers in context.

Here is the Tier table for the White Sox.

Type Tier Name_teamid
Lineups 5 CHA
SP 4 Carson_Fulmer_CHA
SP 5 Lucas_Giolito_CHA
SP 1 Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA
SP 4 James_Shields_CHA
Relief 4 CHA

Team rosters haven’t been updated in a couple days.  Lopez is their best starter right now.  White Sox have a worst in the league lineup and almost worst in the league relief.  We’ll see how that plays out these next few days.

tl;dr  Both lines a discard, do not bet.

That is all.  OPS Part 5 next.  Until then ….