I was reticent to post this but since this is technically a log book it is important to make this entry. Today was a betting opportunity for ATL but it was too late to make that proclamation by the time I looked up the lines. The Cubs lost but that doesn’t matter. Today was an example of irrational exuberance that shifted the lines.
In the past bunch of years Atlanta fielded terrible teams. This year is different.
Scanning this status line you can tell they have been playing very well. They have a real WAA +9 with top tier BAT and PITCH. Let’s see what the Ouija Board had to say about today.
DATE 05_14 2:20_PM ATL CHN
LINEAWAY ATL [ 0.412 ] < 0.413 >
STARTAWAY 1.03(0.608) Julio_Teheran_ATL TIER 2
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.605 ] < 0.603 >
STARTHOME -0.04(0.495) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3
ATL 24 15 CHN 21 16
DELTAWAA 4 WINPCT 0.542 ATL
ATL lineup=1 ==> CHN SP=3 / RP=1 == 4.73 runs
CHN lineup=1 ==> ATL SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.66 runs
The Cubs were favored with a 60% probability, Braves at 41.3%. ATL has a better record than CHN. They are (what is commonly referred to as) two games up, or DeltaWAA=4. The lookup table based upon a 1970-2016 dataset gives Atlanta a 54.2% advantage. The threshold to bet ATL is 0.413 + 0.07 = 0.483 so our expected probability is way above that.
This is a betting opportunity but we have to look at Tier combos which take into account value of starting lineups, starting pitchers, and relief squads. Both teams now field a Tier 1 best in league lineup (Cubs have been climbing a lot in that category lately). Quintana is Tier 3, Teheran Tier 2 and both teams are fielding a best in league relief squad. At 4.73 runs for ATL and 4.66 runs for CHN, the expected runs generated by each team is virtually even.
When we have sims finished we can show a probability but that looks very close to even steven, flip of a coin.
At 50% the ATL line still falls within our margin.
Whether or not the Cubs won I was going to post this for the record. A single game does not prove or disprove any of this. Was this expected probability correct? The proof of this value system will show that it is — eventually, not today, but hopefully by the end of this season.
If this data model can algorithmically estimate game probabilities accurately then it can take advantage of when lines shift like this. Most lines match our expected probability making them a discard. Today the ATL line didn’t.
Still working on presenting some run creation data and that’s proving difficult. We’ll see. Until then ….
Edit: This was a makeup game but there are three more with ATL. Since game tomorrow starts at 5:35 PM CST I’ll post tier combos, before the game starts this time!