Cubs Braves Matchup

Didn’t realize until too late yesterday that this was a 4 game series.  Let’s look at what the Ouija Board has to say about today.

DATE 05_15 7:35_PM CHN ATL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 >
STARTAWAY -1.16(0.327) Yu_Darvish_CHN TIER 5
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.488 ] < 0.465 >
STARTHOME 0.92(0.599) Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL TIER 2
CHN 21 17 ATL 25 15
CHN lineup=1 ==> ATL SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.73 runs
ATL lineup=1 ==> CHN SP=5 / RP=1 == 5.04 runs

The DeltaWAA table gleaned from a 1970-2016 dataset gives Atlanta a 54.6% probability of winning today yet the Cubs are favored by the markets.  Darvish is having a terrible year and considered Tier 5 and Foltynewicz Tier 2.

The Cubs line is a clear discard.  In order to bet the ATL line they would need to be over 0.465+0.07=0.535 probability to be within our margin.  And they are but very very close.  The Tier combo could easily drop Atlanta’s probability.  According to the above they will score 0.3 more runs than the Cubs but not sure how that translates into a probability.  ATL could be a betting opportunity again today but it’s not so clear cut as yesterday.  When the simulations are complete we’ll have more focus on close calls like this.

Also, none of this has been run against the 2011-present daily lines dataset for every game in baseball.

Darvish is pitching way below his career numbers and Foltynewicz above.  Here are Foltynewicz‘s career numbers so far in the MLB,

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2015 -3.4 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL PITCH -029-
2016 -0.4 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL PITCH XXXXX
2017 -1.6 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL PITCH -182-
2018 0.9 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL PITCH +155+
Total -4.5

No need to show lineups anymore since they come out late and they’re already tiered.   Both ATL and CHN lineups are Tier 1 according to the above.  The only thing left is to look at the pitchers the Cubs may face these next three days.  Note: Our roster data can lag a couple of days.

ATL Starting Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+039+ 1.74 Sean_Newcomb_ATL PITCH
+155+ 0.88 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL PITCH
+192+ 0.71 Julio_Teheran_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.15 Mike_Soroka_ATL PITCH
-046- -1.39 Brandon_McCarthy_ATL PITCH
Total 2.09

Perhaps a column showing Tiers would be useful in these tables.  Total for a starting squad isn’t that meaningful in this context.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+032+ 1.89 Shane_Carle_ATL PITCH
+078+ 1.28 Dan_Winkler_ATL PITCH
+145+ 0.94 Arodys_Vizcaino_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 A.J._Minter_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.44 Sam_Freeman_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Peter_Moylan_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.21 Jesse_Biddle_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.08 Luiz_Gohara_ATL PITCH
Total 5.66

And that’s a Tier 1 relief squad.  May as well show the lineup Atlanta fielded yesterday to provide a glimpse as to what Cubs pitching must face.

ATL Lineup 5/14/2018

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05142018
2.86 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 180
0.10 Ronald_Acuna_ATL LF 72
2.16 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 174
1.95 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 174
-0.38 Tyler_Flowers_ATL C 25
-0.02 Ender_Inciarte_ATL CF 173
-0.23 Jose_Bautista_ATL 3B 28
-0.02 Charlie_Culberson_ATL SS 46
-0.21 Julio_Teheran_ATL P 14
TOTAL WAA=6.22 PA=886 WinPct=0.635