The lines have settled in Atlanta

Not going to do this for every Cubs game but the lines for this Atlanta series are kind of noteworthy.  Here are today’s lines as of noon.

DATE 05_16 7:35_PM CHN ATL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY 0.84(0.600) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 2
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.500 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME -1.39(0.345) Brandon_McCarthy_ATL TIER 5
CHN 22 17 ATL 25 16
CHN lineup=1 ==> ATL SP=5 / RP=1 == 4.86 runs
ATL lineup=1 ==> CHN SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.66 runs

The markets are calling this game even steven, they don’t know.  Both pitchers have mediocre careers yet Chatwood is Tier2 this season, McCarthy Tier 5 ( i.e. the worst).  The Tier combos show CHN with a very slight edge in expected runs scored based upon historical data.  A Tier 5 pitcher will pitch less innings than higher tiered starters meaning relief comes in earlier.  The run difference is so little because both teams have Tier 1 relief and Tier 1 lineups.

The DeltaWAA moved slightly towards the Cubs but that’s at 54.2% Atlanta which is above 0.512 but way below our threshold.  DeltaWAA is for reference only as it only takes into account win/loss record.  The Tier Combos reflect the value of the players currently on the active roster and starting that day.

tl;dr  This game is an easy discard unlike the previous two games against Atlanta.

An addendum will be added to this post if the lines tomorrow move in some mysterious way.  Soon we’ll be able to explore other games in MLB and still working on a way to present that, something that is important for the app.