Today the Cubs play the Reds in Cincinnati to start a three game series. Here’s what the Ouija Board has to say about this game.
DATE 05_18 7:10_PM CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.655 ] < 0.630 >
STARTAWAY 1.66(0.670) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.377 ] < 0.392 >
STARTHOME -1.76(0.336) Homer_Bailey_CIN TIER 5
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CHN 22 18 CIN 15 29
DELTAWAA 18 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN lineup=1 ==> CIN SP=5 / RP=1 == 4.86 runs
CIN lineup=3 ==> CHN SP=1 / RP=1 == 3.81 runs
Update 5/19/2018: CHN lineup above should have been Tier 2 not Tier 1. There are still hiccups in how data has been propagating. Wouldn't affect the analysis below however.
Cubs are clear favorites with the Ouija Board, DeltaWAA, and Tier Combos. Since everyone agrees both lines a clear discard, do not bet. Since the ATL game got rained out last night Lester is pitching again and the Cubs are fielding another best as you can get, 1-1-1, lineup-starter-relief combo tonight.
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | -1.4 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2008 | -3.0 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | -063- | |
| 2009 | -0.7 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2010 | -1.0 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2011 | -1.6 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | -169- | |
| 2012 | 1.5 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2013 | 1.6 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2014 | 0.2 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2015 | -0.4 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2016 | -1.3 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2017 | -4.3 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | -018- | |
| 2018 | -1.7 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | -030- | |
| Total | -12.1 |
Homer Bailey had his worst year in 2017 and on track to have another worst year this season. Reds signed him to a $17.5M contract in 2014 based upon his WAR numbers. We question that back when it happened. When a team makes signing decisions based upon Sabermetrics and what sports “experts” say it tends to turn that team into perennial cellar dwellers.
CIN Starters
Every game starts out as an adventure for the Reds.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.29 | Tyler_Mahle_CIN | PITCH | |
| -141- | -0.80 | Sal_Romano_CIN | PITCH | |
| -032- | -1.68 | Matt_Harvey_TOT | PITCH | |
| -030- | -1.72 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH | |
| -020- | -2.12 | Luis_Castillo_CIN | PITCH | |
| Total | -6.61 |
CIN Relief
Reds have a pretty good relief squad which is considered Tier 1.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +050+ | 1.60 | Jared_Hughes_CIN | PITCH | |
| +051+ | 1.60 | Amir_Garrett_CIN | PITCH | |
| +079+ | 1.34 | Raisel_Iglesias_CIN | PITCH | |
| +167+ | 0.88 | Dylan_Floro_CIN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | David_Hernandez_CIN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.13 | Wandy_Peralta_CIN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Austin_Brice_CIN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Jackson_Stephens_CIN | PITCH | |
| Total | 5.59 |
CIN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 05182018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.82 | Jose_Peraza_CIN | SS | 187 | |
| 0.97 | Scooter_Gennett_CIN | 2B | 169 | |
| 2.27 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 117 | |
| 0.36 | Joey_Votto_CIN | 1B | 186 | |
| 0.36 | Adam_Duvall_CIN | LF | 159 | |
| -0.61 | Jesse_Winker_CIN | RF | 146 | |
| -0.65 | Tucker_Barnhart_CIN | C | 139 | |
| -0.36 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | P | 16 | |
| 0.25 | Billy_Hamilton_CIN | CF | 150 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=1.76 | PA=1269 | WinPct=0.527 |
That is all for today. Simulations are almost finished. Until then ….