Cubs Reds Matchup

Today the Cubs play the Reds in Cincinnati to start a three game series.  Here’s what the Ouija Board has to say about this game.

DATE 05_18 7:10_PM CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.655 ] < 0.630 >
STARTAWAY 1.66(0.670) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.377 ] < 0.392 >
STARTHOME -1.76(0.336) Homer_Bailey_CIN TIER 5
------------------------------------
CHN 22 18 CIN 15 29
DELTAWAA 18 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN lineup=1 ==> CIN SP=5 / RP=1 == 4.86 runs
CIN lineup=3 ==> CHN SP=1 / RP=1 == 3.81 runs

Update 5/19/2018:  CHN lineup above should have been Tier 2 not Tier 1.  There are still  hiccups in how data has been propagating.  Wouldn't affect the analysis below however.

Cubs are clear favorites with the Ouija Board, DeltaWAA, and Tier Combos.  Since everyone agrees both lines a clear discard, do not bet.   Since the ATL game got rained out last night Lester is pitching again and the Cubs are fielding another best as you can get, 1-1-1, lineup-starter-relief combo tonight.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2007 -1.4 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2008 -3.0 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -063-
2009 -0.7 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2010 -1.0 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2011 -1.6 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -169-
2012 1.5 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2013 1.6 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2014 0.2 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2015 -0.4 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2016 -1.3 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2017 -4.3 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -018-
2018 -1.7 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -030-
Total -12.1

Homer Bailey had his worst year in 2017 and on track to have another worst year this season.  Reds signed him to a $17.5M contract in 2014 based upon his WAR numbers.  We question that back when it happened.  When a team makes signing decisions based upon Sabermetrics and what sports “experts” say it tends to turn that team into perennial cellar dwellers.

CIN Starters

Every game starts out as an adventure for the Reds.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.29 Tyler_Mahle_CIN PITCH
-141- -0.80 Sal_Romano_CIN PITCH
-032- -1.68 Matt_Harvey_TOT PITCH
-030- -1.72 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
-020- -2.12 Luis_Castillo_CIN PITCH
Total -6.61

CIN Relief

Reds have a pretty good relief squad which is considered Tier 1.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+050+ 1.60 Jared_Hughes_CIN PITCH
+051+ 1.60 Amir_Garrett_CIN PITCH
+079+ 1.34 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN PITCH
+167+ 0.88 Dylan_Floro_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 David_Hernandez_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.13 Wandy_Peralta_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.13 Austin_Brice_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.21 Jackson_Stephens_CIN PITCH
Total 5.59

CIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05182018
-0.82 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 187
0.97 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 169
2.27 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 117
0.36 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 186
0.36 Adam_Duvall_CIN LF 159
-0.61 Jesse_Winker_CIN RF 146
-0.65 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN C 139
-0.36 Homer_Bailey_CIN P 16
0.25 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 150
TOTAL WAA=1.76 PA=1269 WinPct=0.527

That is all for today.  Simulations are almost finished.  Until then ….