Cubs Indians Matchup

Today the Cubs play the Cleveland Indians, the team they beat to win the World Series.   First let’s look at team status for Cleveland.

9.9 6.1 214 196 22 23 3.1 -1.1 CLE

Cleveland has a real WAA = 22-23 = -1 which is almost completely average.  Their BAT and PITCH are balanced, both fluttering around average as well which should be expected from an average team this year.  Still early in the season however.   Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say.

DATE 05_22 7:05_PM CLE CHN
LINEAWAY CLE [ 0.524 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY 2.14(0.663) Trevor_Bauer_CLE TIER 1
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.524 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME 1.07(0.612) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 2
CLE 22 23 CHN 25 19
CLE lineup=2 ==> CHN SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.36 runs
CHN lineup=2 ==> CLE SP=1 / RP=5 == 4.27 runs

The lines started out with a big spread of 0.524 for each team and dropped it down to 0.512 which means even steven, the market doesn’t know or doesn’t care.  Flip a coin.  DeltaWAA gives the Cubs a 0.565 advantage based upon win/loss records.

Tier combos are virtually tied in runs generated.  A simulation would almost certainly result in a 50/50 game.  Since we’re all in agreement this game is a clear discard, do not bet.  BTW: simulations are getting close to generating some results.

Let’s look at how this model allocated Tiers to Starters (SP), Lineups, and Relief Squads (RP).  Lineups and Relief are groups of players, Starters are individual players.  WAA has proven additive properties which means the value of a group is the value of the sum of members of that group.

Indians Tiers

Type Tier Name_teamid
lineups 2 CLE 4.20
SP 1 Trevor_Bauer_CLE 2.14
SP 3 Carlos_Carrasco_CLE 0.67
SP 1 Mike_Clevinger_CLE 1.78
SP 1 Corey_Kluber_CLE 3.00
SP 5 Josh_Tomlin_CLE -2.67
RP 5 CLE -3.28

Indian relief has taken a hit this season.  With Andrew Miller they have been top of the league in past years — including 2016.  They have three top notch starters balancing the load.  Here are the Cubs Tier allocation.

Cubs Tiers

Type Tier Name_teamid
lineups 2 CHN 3.84
SP 2 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 1.07
SP 4 Yu_Darvish_CHN -1.07
SP 2 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.05
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN 1.97
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.29
RP 1 CHN 5.80

Cubs’ don’t have the starting pitching that CLE can bring but they have Tier 1 Relief.  Cleveland will most likely concentrate on  improving their relief with minor league call ups and trades.  Maybe they’ll have an epiphany and wipe out Cubs lineups this series.  As always, past results do not influence future results.  We can only use the past to show  capability.

That is all for today.  Tiering  for historical data is the foundation for the simulations which still need work.  The runs generated in the Tier Combo section might be slightly affected by cleaning up SYSERRs in the database.   OPS Part 5 coming which will dive into runs created data and on Thursday Cubs status.  Cubs’ rankings have changed somewhat since last fortnight.  Until then ….