Cubs Giants Matchup

The Cubs play the Giants today, who last season fielded one of the worst teams in MLB.  Let’s look at their team.

SFN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-9.4 -21.7 204 240 24 26 -4.0 -0.9 SFN

The Giants have a real WAA=24-26 = -2.  Both PITCH and BAT underwater as well as the amount of runs they give up due to errors (UR).  Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say about today.

DATE 05_25 2:20_PM SFN CHN
LINEAWAY SFN [ 0.351 ] < 0.323 >
STARTAWAY -1.03(0.402) Derek_Holland_SFN TIER 4
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.667 ] < 0.706 >
STARTHOME 1.09(0.588) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2
------------------------------------
SFN 24 26 CHN 25 21
DELTAWAA 6 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
SFN lineup=3 ==> CHN SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.17 runs SFN
CHN lineup=2 ==> SFN SP=4 / RP=3 == 4.72 runs CHN

Cubs are favored more than 2-1 at 70.6%.  You need to think the Cubs have a greater than 70% probability of winning today to bet them,  greater than 32.3% to bet the Giants.  DeltaWAA based solely on win loss record says 54.2% CHN, 45.8% SFN.  Since 45.8% is much greater than 32.3% the Giants could be an opportunity.  Win/loss records do not take into account starting pitching, lineup, and relief value for a particular game.

Tier Combos give the Cubs around a 0.5 run advantage.  Right now this is a work in progress and not sure what probability that translates into.  Hendricks is typically a Tier 1 pitcher and Holland is a career Tier 4 pitcher so he’s pitching to his average capability.  Cubs lineup is fluttering between Tier 1 and Tier 2 and today they’re Tier 2.  This is still being worked out so can’t make any recommendations right now

Type Tier Name_teamid
Lineups 3 SFN 0.90
SP 3 Ty_Blach_SFN -0.46
SP 4 Derek_Holland_SFN -1.03
SP 5 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN -1.78
SP 4 Chris_Stratton_SFN -1.11
SP 4 Andrew_Suarez_SFN -1.22
RP 3 SFN 2.46

Above is a Tier breakdown of lineups, starters (SP), and relief (RP) that the Giants will throw at the Cubs this series.   Hello Jeff Samardzjia.  Still working on your FIP?  :-)  And finally, below is the  Giants’ lineup for the game today which starts in about 30 minutes.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05252018
-0.42 Gorkys_Hernandez_SFN CF 100
0.17 Andrew_McCutchen_SFN RF 202
-0.17 Buster_Posey_SFN C 171
1.45 Brandon_Belt_SFN 1B 197
0.40 Evan_Longoria_SFN 3B 192
0.00 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS 182
0.50 Mac_Williamson_SFN LF 19
-0.71 Kelby_Tomlinson_SFN 2B 95
-0.32 Derek_Holland_SFN P 14
TOTAL WAA=0.90 PA=1172 WinPct=0.515

And that’s a  Tier 3 (i.e. league average)  lineup.