The Cubs play the Giants today, who last season fielded one of the worst teams in MLB. Let’s look at their team.
SFN Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.4 | -21.7 | 204 | 240 | 24 | 26 | -4.0 | -0.9 | SFN |
The Giants have a real WAA=24-26 = -2. Both PITCH and BAT underwater as well as the amount of runs they give up due to errors (UR). Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say about today.
DATE 05_25 2:20_PM SFN CHN
LINEAWAY SFN [ 0.351 ] < 0.323 >
STARTAWAY -1.03(0.402) Derek_Holland_SFN TIER 4
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.667 ] < 0.706 >
STARTHOME 1.09(0.588) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2
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SFN 24 26 CHN 25 21
DELTAWAA 6 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
SFN lineup=3 ==> CHN SP=2 / RP=1 == 4.17 runs SFN
CHN lineup=2 ==> SFN SP=4 / RP=3 == 4.72 runs CHN
Cubs are favored more than 2-1 at 70.6%. You need to think the Cubs have a greater than 70% probability of winning today to bet them, greater than 32.3% to bet the Giants. DeltaWAA based solely on win loss record says 54.2% CHN, 45.8% SFN. Since 45.8% is much greater than 32.3% the Giants could be an opportunity. Win/loss records do not take into account starting pitching, lineup, and relief value for a particular game.
Tier Combos give the Cubs around a 0.5 run advantage. Right now this is a work in progress and not sure what probability that translates into. Hendricks is typically a Tier 1 pitcher and Holland is a career Tier 4 pitcher so he’s pitching to his average capability. Cubs lineup is fluttering between Tier 1 and Tier 2 and today they’re Tier 2. This is still being worked out so can’t make any recommendations right now
| Type | Tier | Name_teamid | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 3 | SFN | 0.90 | |
| SP | 3 | Ty_Blach_SFN | -0.46 | |
| SP | 4 | Derek_Holland_SFN | -1.03 | |
| SP | 5 | Jeff_Samardzija_SFN | -1.78 | |
| SP | 4 | Chris_Stratton_SFN | -1.11 | |
| SP | 4 | Andrew_Suarez_SFN | -1.22 | |
| RP | 3 | SFN | 2.46 |
Above is a Tier breakdown of lineups, starters (SP), and relief (RP) that the Giants will throw at the Cubs this series. Hello Jeff Samardzjia. Still working on your FIP? 🙂 And finally, below is the Giants’ lineup for the game today which starts in about 30 minutes.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 05252018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.42 | Gorkys_Hernandez_SFN | CF | 100 | |
| 0.17 | Andrew_McCutchen_SFN | RF | 202 | |
| -0.17 | Buster_Posey_SFN | C | 171 | |
| 1.45 | Brandon_Belt_SFN | 1B | 197 | |
| 0.40 | Evan_Longoria_SFN | 3B | 192 | |
| 0.00 | Brandon_Crawford_SFN | SS | 182 | |
| 0.50 | Mac_Williamson_SFN | LF | 19 | |
| -0.71 | Kelby_Tomlinson_SFN | 2B | 95 | |
| -0.32 | Derek_Holland_SFN | P | 14 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=0.90 | PA=1172 | WinPct=0.515 |
And that’s a Tier 3 (i.e. league average) lineup.