Cubs Mets Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series with the New York Mets.  Let’s look at what the Cubs will face in this series.  Here is team status for NYN.  The Cubs status hasn’t changed much since last week.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-14.3 2.1 224 240 27 26 -0.4 -3.4 NYN

Below average BAT, average PITCH and +1 in the win loss column (i.e. average).  Let’s look at what the Ouija Board has to say.

Ouija Board

DATE 05_31 7:10_PM CHN NYN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.600 ] < 0.615 >
STARTAWAY -0.67(0.443) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3
LINEHOME NYN [ 0.435 ] < 0.400 >
STARTHOME 1.32(0.682) Seth_Lugo_NYN TIER 2
------------------------------------
CHN 29 23 NYN 27 26
DELTAWAA 5 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN lineup=1 ==> NYN SP=2 / RP=3 == 4.77 runs CHN
NYN lineup=5 ==> CHN SP=3 / RP=1 == 4.03 runs NYN

Based upon win loss record differences (DeltaWAA) the Cubs should be favored at 54.2%, the Mets would be at 45.8% (1 – 0.542).   The line for NYN (0.400 , 40%) means they could be a betting opportunity.   deltaWAA does not  exceed our 0.07 threshold which is 47% for being able to bet NYN.  None of this takes into account who is playing.  The Mets have a better starter on the mound today according to current year data.  Tier Combo lookup gives the Cubs a clear 0.7 run lead which probably exceeds 0.542 so both lines a complete discard.   Tier Combo lookups and simulations are still a work in progress.

NYN Tiers

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 NYN -2.27
SP 1 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 4.09
SP 2 Seth_Lugo_NYN 1.32
SP 3 Steven_Matz_NYN 0.71
SP 5 Jason_Vargas_NYN -2.56
SP 4 Zack_Wheeler_NYN -1.39
RP 3 NYN 0.74

They have average Relief (RP) and a mix of starters (SP) from best, deGrom Tier 1, to worst Vargas Tier 5.  Today Lugo is pitching, their second best starter.  They have a worst in league Tier 5 lineup.  Here is the lineup from their last game.  Note: WAA for pitchers is their BAT WAA which is just for hitting.

NYN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05302018
-0.04 Brandon_Nimmo_NYN CF 130
1.05 Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN 2B 210
-0.17 Jose_Bautista_TOT LF 56
-1.45 Jay_Bruce_NYN RF 188
0.15 Kevin_Plawecki_NYN C 33
0.00 Adrian_Gonzalez_NYN 1B 150
-0.23 Luis_Guillorme_NYN 3B 31
-0.15 Jason_Vargas_NYN P 6
-0.34 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 172
TOTAL WAA=-1.18 PA=976 WinPct=0.477

Although a win pct of 0.477 is close to average, the average MLB lineup increases as the season progresses.  The average MLB lineup now is WAA=+3.4.  Players who sink into negative territory get replaced by new guys.  This wipes negative value from the books which raises average value across the league.

That is all for now.  Cubs status possibly tomorrow.  Until then ….