Today the Cubs face the Phillies for a series at Wrigley. Let’s take a look at this matchup and for the first time there will be simulation results!
The Phillies performed extremely well in April and have since settled to only +5 in the win/loss columns. They’re hitting (BAT) is underwater. PITCHing is carrying this team according to basic run differential. UR is around average which OK. PHI is an above mediocre team who could break out this season. They were so terrible in the last almost a decade it’s possible they’ll sink back into the cellar again. Can’t predict the future.
Let’s see what the new and improved Ouija Board has to say about today.
DATE 06_05_8:05_PM PHI CHN
LINEAWAY PHI [ 0.353 ] < 0.339 >
STARTAWAY -0.15(0.475) Zach_Eflin_PHI TIER 3
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.661 ] < 0.683 >
STARTHOME 1.64(0.609) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2
PHI 31 26 CHN 33 23
DELTAWAA 5 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
PHI Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.415 PHI 3.98 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> PHI Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.585 CHN 4.83 runs
The Cubs started the day at 66.1%, almost 2-1 favorites, and rose to 68.3% in the betting markets. Hendricks is considered Tier 2 and Eflin Tier3 so the Cubs have a starter advantage. Based upon raw win/loss record difference between these two teams (deltaWAA) , the Cubs should win 54.2% of the time with this matchup. deltaWAA does not take into consideration as to who is starting or on the active roster which brings us to the Tier Combo section.
Tier Combos match lineup->starter lineup->relief for home and away. There is an historical dataset from 1970-2016 that finds similar matchups. The simulations randomly pull from these pair distributions, count runs, determines winners used to calculate win%. The above shows the WinPct and average runs for this matchup. Not sure if average runs above are useful in over/under betting.
The PHI line is 0.339 and the simulation shows PHI with a 0.415 chance of winning. This exceeds our 0.07 threshold (just barely) which would make PHI a betting opportunity. That is how the handicapping model works. In this instance it’s too close and these simulations haven’t been fully debugged. The lineup->relief calculation needs to be reworked which would probably raise CHN and lower PHI since the Cubs have an advantage in that category.
The above is a work in progress and the ultimate proof whether this is all hogwash or not is a few months away.
Let’s finish this by looking at the Tiering numbers calculated for Philadelphia.
PHI Tier Data
Hello Jake Arrieta! Looks like you’re having a good year again. We saw how above average their PITCH was in team status and above verifies that. Good set of starters and a Tier 2 relief which is a grade of B if you’re in school.
Their lineup is Tier 3 or a C which is average and better than the negative BAT shown in team status. As the season progresses negative performers get washed out replaced by new guys. Run differential and even wins and losses represent an entire season. They don’t necessarily represent a snapshot of talent on a team’s active roster. Let’s look at PHI lineup from their last game.
That’s a completely average Tier 3 lineup. Since league average lineup continues to rise as the season progress, eventually a WAA=0 lineup will sink to Tier 4 for simulation purposes.
That is all for today. If the lines for this series go haywire, which has been known to happen for Cubs playing at Wrigley I’ll post more sim results. Maybe a post that goes into more detail as to how these simulations work. Otherwise, until then ….