This is a spotcheck of the lines today for the Cubs Phillies. The Monte Carlo approach in these simulations has some error and now it must be tested. This post will simply be a walk through.

tl;dr The lines for the Cubs game settled from opening night of this series. Lines for both teams yesterday and today are/were clear discards.

### Ouija Board

** DATE 06_07_2:20_PM PHI CHN**

LINEAWAY PHI [ 0.444 ] < **0.483** >

STARTAWAY 1.13(0.582) Nick_Pivetta_PHI TIER 3

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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.592 ] < **0.539** >

STARTHOME 0.21(0.518) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 3

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PHI 32 27 CHN 34 24

DELTAWAA 5 WINPCT **0.542 CHN**

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TIER COMBOS

PHI Lineup 4 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == **0.444 PHI 3.99 runs**

CHN Lineup 1 ==> PHI Starter 3 / Relief 2 == **0.556 CHN 4.66 runs**

According to current lines the markets think PHI has a 0.483 chance of winning which is above their TIER COMBO simulation result. At 0.556 simulation result CHN is above what the market thinks of them (0.539) but well below our 0.070 threshold. This simulation would need to produce a result greater than 0.610 (round up) in order to bet CHN. Both lines a clear discard.

And that brings this to error. It has been discovered the error in the above simulation is +/-0.030 with 95% certainty. That means PHI is between 0.414 and 0.474 , CHN will fall between 0.526 and 0.586.

The first run of these sims are only using 1000 iterations. If we bump that up to 10,000 iterations the error drops to 0.01. This is stressing the limits of computers running this here. Everything is written in Perl which isn’t known for its real time capability.

Right now it will take an hour to process matchups for every game in a day at 10K iterations. For the next month or so the 10K sims will be used unless otherwise specified.

That is all for now. Cubs status in a couple of days. Until then ….