Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs play the Pirates today at Wrigley.  Let’s look at this matchup.

PIT Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
21.6 -1.0 249 228 28 24 0.5 -0.0 PIT  5/28/2018
19.2 -12.9 289 284 31 31 -0.7 -0.5 PIT  6/8/2018

The Cubs played the Pirates a little over a week ago.  Since that time PIT pitching tanked and their real WAA went from +4 to 0.  They are a completely average team now.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say about today

Ouija Board

DATE 06_08_2:20_PM PIT CHN

LINEAWAY PIT [ 0.392 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY 0.36(0.524) Chad_Kuhl_PIT TIER 3
——————————————–
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.636 ] < 0.615 >
STARTHOME 0.23(0.528) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
——————————————–
PIT 31 31 CHN 35 24
DELTAWAA 11 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
——————————————–
TIER COMBOS
PIT Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.427 PIT 4.18 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> PIT Starter 3 / Relief 4 == 0.573 CHN 4.92 runs

Mike Montgomery is starting in place of Darvish.  Both pitchers are completely average Tier 3.  The markets think the Cubs have a 61.5% chance and Pittsburgh 40%.  DeltaWAA agrees and our Tier Combo simulations agree.  The lines and this data model are in harmony, thus both lines a discard, do not bet.  The Cubs are favored by what the market suggests.

Note:  The simulations have been fixed and the above has virtually no error since they run 1,000,000 iterations now instead of 1000.  There was a stupid bug in a loop that caused a 20x slowdown.  That will be explained in more detail with an update of the previous post made yesterday.

PIT Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 PIT 2.90
SP 3 Nick_Kingham_PIT 0.04
SP 3 Chad_Kuhl_PIT 0.36
SP 3 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 0.97
SP 3 Jameson_Taillon_PIT 0.02
SP 3 Trevor_Williams_PIT -0.17
RP 4 PIT -0.65

Tier 3 lineup, Tier 4 relief and the above shows a very average team — which we should expect from run differential and win loss record.  And finally, let’s look at the lineup the Pirates will throw at Cubs pitching this series.

PIT Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06082018
0.08 Josh_Harrison_PIT 2B 131
0.38 Austin_Meadows_PIT RF 65
0.84 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 220
1.60 Francisco_Cervelli_PIT C 188
1.11 Corey_Dickerson_PIT LF 235
0.42 David_Freese_PIT 1B 103
0.32 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B 193
-0.82 Jordy_Mercer_PIT SS 210
-0.23 Chad_Kuhl_PIT P 23
TOTAL WAA=3.70 PA=1368 WinPct=0.552

Average lineup as should be expected from an average team with average BAT.  We’ll see how this plays out the next couple of days.  Another post will be made if there are any disruptions in the force that controls the markets, otherwise, until then ….

Note: The 0.552 WinPct rate calculated for PIT lineup may seem well above average.  Since negative players get washed out and wiped from the books throughout the league, average lineups and relief rises as the season progresses.  Currently WAA= +2.18 is league average lineup.