Cubs Brewers Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series with the first place Brewers in Milwaukee.  Let’s take a look at this series.   Here is team status for the Brewers today,

-0.9 38.2 284 242 39 26 2.4 2.2 MIL

Average BAT, excellent PITCH and Milwaukee is +13 for the season.  Their UR is above water as well.  Let’s see what the betting markets have to say about today’s game.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_11_8:10_PM CHN MIL

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.565 ] < 0.541 >
STARTAWAY -0.08(0.494) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.476 ] < 0.481 >
STARTHOME 1.74(0.630) Junior_Guerra_MIL TIER 2
CHN 37 25 MIL 39 26
CHN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.524 CHN 4.40 runs
MIL Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.476 MIL 4.17 runs

Cubs favored at 54.1%, down a bit from the opening 56.5%.  Quintana is a Tier 3 starter which is average and Guerra is at Tier 2, or a grade of B if you’re in school.  DeltaWAA between the two teams is narrow making this virtually an even steven matchup.  The Tier combo simulations give CHN a 0.524 chance, MIL 0.476 which are almost identical to their current lines.  The markets have settled on the Cubs as of late.  Let’s look closer at tiers for  lineups, relief, and starters for MIL.

MIL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 MIL 1.78
SP 4 Chase_Anderson_MIL -0.73
SP 3 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 0.86
SP 2 Junior_Guerra_MIL 1.74
SP 4 Brent_Suter_MIL -0.84
SP 3 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL -0.50
RP 1 MIL 8.84

The Cubs are facing the Brewers’ best starter today.  Lineup is average but a top tier relief squad.  Let’s take a look at the players considered relievers on the Brewers’ roster.

MIL Relief Squad

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+024+ 2.60 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+030+ 2.52 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
+109+ 1.41 Matt_Albers_MIL PITCH
+168+ 1.11 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
+178+ 1.05 Taylor_Williams_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.53 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.19 Boone_Logan_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.19 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
Total 8.84

At WAA=8.84 the Brewers have a better relief squad than the Cubs who are currently at WAA=7.10.  Both relief squads are Tier 1, top of the league for simulation purposes.

Here is the lineup yesterday for MIL which should be close to what the Cubs will face these next few days.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06112018
-0.25 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 263
1.68 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 230
2.62 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 190
1.93 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B 255
1.41 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 184
-0.88 Jonathan_Villar_MIL 2B 192
-0.67 Manny_Pina_MIL C 152
-1.43 Eric_Sogard_MIL SS 87
-0.15 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL P 6
TOTAL WAA=4.26 PA=1559 WinPct=0.553

The league average for lineups is now WAA=4.18 so MIL is almost exactly average.  There are disputes with WAR over Cain and Braun.  The above is correct and matches what we would expect from simple run differential numbers in team status.

That is all.  Cubs status coming soon.  As we approach the end of the month we’ll take a look see into minor leagues (AAA, AA, Aplus) and make All Star picks according to this data model  and compare them with fan voting.   Until then ….