Cubs Status 6/13/2018

It has been awhile since the last Cubs status update.  Let’s look at team status today and the last time we did this.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
33.3 50.3 284 199 31 23 -0.1 1.5 CHN 6/2/2018
27.7 60.4 318 228 38 26 0.9 1.0 CHN 6/13/2018

PITCH is up, BAT down a bit and the Cubs went from +8 11 days ago to +12 as of today.  According to run differential they should be around +18 which is the same as 11 days ago so that gap is closing — which usually happens one way or another.   UR improving again even with the unearned run they gave up yesterday  Let’s look at how Cubs players rank against the rest of MLB.

Top CHN Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+013+ 3.38 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+018+ 2.98 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
+046+ 2.12 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+105+ 1.49 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+120+ 1.39 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+147+ 1.24 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+148+ 1.24 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF
+162+ 1.18 Justin_Wilson_CHN PITCH
+168+ 1.13 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+191+ 1.01 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF
XXXXX 0.90 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF

Javier Baez relinquished top spot and Lester is having a great year.  Rizzo back in his usual holding pattern, ranked between 25-50 every season.  WAR has him in their dog house unranked with a WAR=0.6 even though Rizzo leads the Cubs in RBIs.  Whatever.    Let’s look at Cubs Tier levels used for simulation purposes.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 CHN 8.53
SP 3 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 0.19
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.13
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN 3.38
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.00
SP 3 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 0.55
RP 1 CHN 6.72

Top Tier lineup and relief (RP).  All Tier 3 starters except for Lester.  Hendricks having an above average year but down from previous seasons.  That’s fine.  Still early in the season.  Relief is the reason for such a high PITCH in team status.   Relief roster was shown last week.  Let’s look a the lineup that makes the Cubs top of the league in that category.

CHN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06132018
1.24 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 192
0.97 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 195
0.46 Tommy_La_Stella_CHN 3B 89
2.12 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 249
0.15 Ian_Happ_CHN CF 180
0.90 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 220
2.98 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 248
-0.21 Chris_Gimenez_CHN C 14
-0.08 Mike_Montgomery_CHN P 8
TOTAL WAA=8.53 PA=1395 WinPct=0.617

That’s top tier MLB lineup out of all 30 teams.  Although a Win% of 0.617 would yield almost 100 wins for a team, lineup is only one aspect to a team’s makeup.

No blast from the past.  tl;dr 2017 was worse on this day, 2016 was better, and 2015 slightly worse.  Part 2 of the sim series as well as Part 5 of OPS series coming soon.  Until then ….