Cubs Cardinals Matchup

Cubs start a weekend series with the Cardinals in St. Louis.   Let’s look at the current status of SLN and who the Cubs pitchers and batters will face.

-0.2 24.9 132 105 17 12 3.0 -0.7 SLN 5/4/2018
-13.5 32.9 281 263 36 30 -0.8 -0.6 SLN 6/15/2018

Cardinals’ pitching up, hitting down and they went from a real WAA=+5 to +6 since May 4, the last time Cubs faced them.  SLN has been moving sideways.  Moving sideways is preferable to moving down and they are very much in contention — as they almost always are throughout every season.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks of these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_15_8:15_PM CHN SLN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.524 ] < 0.519 >
STARTAWAY 3.42(0.700) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
LINEHOME SLN [ 0.524 ] < 0.505 >
STARTHOME 2.90(0.670) Michael_Wacha_SLN TIER 1
CHN 38 27 SLN 36 30
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SLN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.568 CHN 4.45 runs
SLN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.432 SLN 3.75 runs

The market started out with a we don’t know at 0.524 for each team. They narrowed the juice after betting began. DeltaWAA based entirely on win/loss record give the Cubs 0.542 expected probability. Tier Combo simulations give the Cubs 0.568 today. Cubs fielding a perfect 1-1-1 lineup-starter-relief set. SLN has a Tier 3 average lineup and Tier 3 average Relief which is the reason they’re underdogs today. Tomorrow will be different with different starters. Lineups and Relief tiers don’t usually change that much on a day to day basis.

The Cubs could be a betting opportunity but the margin between 0.519 and 0.568  of .05 is below our threshold of .07.  These lines can move during the day and Cardinals fans have been known to bet on their team because they usually have a good chance of winning.   Not using any stats the Cubs play the Cardinals pretty much 50/50 no matter what the mismatch of the talent is.

Past results do not affect future results and past results from decades of games and different players really do not matter.  The current players matter.  If the past mattered the Cubs would have never won a World Series or the NLDS three years in a row.  Let’s look at Tier Data for SLN.

Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 SLN 1.09
SP 2 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 1.20
SP 1 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 2.14
SP 1 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 3.30
SP 1 Michael_Wacha_SLN 2.90
SP 4 Luke_Weaver_SLN -0.73
RP 3 SLN 3.19

Three Tier 1 starters who the Cubs will probably face.  Excellent starting rotation.  Since SLN PITCH in team status was above league average but not that above average the sacrifice came from their relief staff who are Tier 3, average.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+089+ 1.66 Jordan_Hicks_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 Mike_Mayers_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.55 John_Brebbia_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.48 Bud_Norris_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Sam_Tuivailala_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.06 Austin_Gomber_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.53 Brett_Cecil_SLN PITCH
Total 3.19

Almost all average or above average pitchers.  Cardinals can improve this throughout the season.  And finally, below is the lineup SLN fielded their last game.  Don’t want to wait around for tonight’s lineup since it will probably be very close.

SLN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06132018
-0.02 Harrison_Bader_SLN RF 128
1.41 Tommy_Pham_SLN CF 248
1.41 Jose_Martinez_SLN 1B 261
0.25 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 257
0.02 Yadier_Molina_SLN C 148
-0.10 Jedd_Gyorko_SLN 3B 140
-0.10 Yairo_Munoz_SLN SS 92
-1.62 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 177
-0.15 Luke_Weaver_SLN P 24
TOTAL WAA=1.09 PA=1475 WinPct=0.514

This is considered a Tier 3 or league average lineup.  Looks like their worst starter, Luke Weaver pitched 2 days ago so the Cubs will be facing Tier 1 or Tier 2 starters the next two games.   For all these lineup tables, the WAA value assigned pitchers is their value as a hitter (BAT).  Their PITCH value is a completely separate record and their BAT value does not get counted towards their career value.  That would be mean.  :-)

That is all for now.  A post will be made If the lines for this series go haywire.  Currently working on a league scan for current day betting opportunities.   A minor league update coming soon and All Star picks at the end of the month.  Until then ….