Cubs Dodgers Matchup

Tonight the Cubs start a series with the Dodgers at Wrigley.  Let’s take a look at LAN so far this season and what the Ouija Board thinks of these two teams.  Here is current team status for LAN.

21.3 31.5 334 278 37 33 -0.8 4.0 LAN

Above average PITCH and BAT making this a well balanced team.  At +4 real WAA they are, like the Cubs, under performing the PE estimate based upon run differential which is around +12 for LAN.  Let’s see how this plays out with the Ouija Board.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_18_8:05_PM LAN CHN

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 >
STARTAWAY 0.59(0.546) Kenta_Maeda_LAN TIER 3
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.500 ] < 0.500 >
STARTHOME 0.02(0.501) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 3
LAN 37 33 CHN 40 28
LAN Lineup 1 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.461 LAN 4.45 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.539 CHN 4.86 runs

Update 6/19/2018: There was a bug in the way data propagated that caused an error in the above.  The sim results should be 0.497 CHN, 0.503 LAN making this a clear discard.  Not sure how this happened but after the rain delay the results were different on the second day.  This is still a work in progress.  Cubs lost this game 4-3.

Still experimenting with colors to make this more readable.  The market set this game pretty much even steven with Dodger bettors paying the juice.  Both Tier Combo simulations and DeltaWAA give the Cubs a clear advantage  but less than our 0.07 margin.   If you’re a Cubs fan it might be OK to bet this for fun since  Cubs lines have not been a betting opportunity that often these last few years.  Our algorithm would kick both lines however, do not bet.

LAN is fielding a Tier 1 lineup and Cubs’ lineup dropped to Tier 2 the last few days.  Cubs still have a Tier 1 Relief staff and both starters are mediocre Tier 3.  Let’s look at how Tier data for LAN breaks down.  Tier data for CHN was shown in the last Cubs status post a couple days ago.

LAN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 LAN 7.75
SP 4 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN -0.88
SP 3 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 0.59
SP 1 Ross_Stripling_LAN 3.53
SP 3 Alex_Wood_LAN -0.29
RP 2 LAN 4.39

Above is how Lineups, Relief (RP), and starters break down for the Dodgers so far this season.  Let’s look at the Dodgers lineup from the last game

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06182017
1.68 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF 180
1.78 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B 158
0.21 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 90
1.28 Cody_Bellinger_LAN CF 274
1.89 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN C 225
1.36 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 198
0.25 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN SS 169
-0.69 Logan_Forsythe_LAN 2B 129
-0.02 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN P 1
TOTAL WAA=7.75 PA=1424 WinPct=0.604

That is a top tier league lineup with a lot of well above average hitting talent.

That is all for now.  If lines go haywire a post will be made but don’t expect that in this series.  There have been some real haywire lines with Baltimore the last few days.  Not sure the reason but we’ll get into that more later.  Still working on the plumbing to hook simulation results with a betting algorithm.  Once that’s complete we can see if any of this actually works.  Until then ….