Tonight the Cubs start a series with the Dodgers at Wrigley. Let’s take a look at LAN so far this season and what the Ouija Board thinks of these two teams. Here is current team status for LAN.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.3 | 31.5 | 334 | 278 | 37 | 33 | -0.8 | 4.0 | LAN |
Above average PITCH and BAT making this a well balanced team. At +4 real WAA they are, like the Cubs, under performing the PE estimate based upon run differential which is around +12 for LAN. Let’s see how this plays out with the Ouija Board.
Ouija Board
DATE 06_18_8:05_PM LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 >
STARTAWAY 0.59(0.546) Kenta_Maeda_LAN TIER 3
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.500 ] < 0.500 >
STARTHOME 0.02(0.501) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 3
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LAN 37 33 CHN 40 28
DELTAWAA 8 WINPCT 0.565 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.461 LAN 4.45 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.539 CHN 4.86 runs
Update 6/19/2018: There was a bug in the way data propagated that caused an error in the above. The sim results should be 0.497 CHN, 0.503 LAN making this a clear discard. Not sure how this happened but after the rain delay the results were different on the second day. This is still a work in progress. Cubs lost this game 4-3.
Still experimenting with colors to make this more readable. The market set this game pretty much even steven with Dodger bettors paying the juice. Both Tier Combo simulations and DeltaWAA give the Cubs a clear advantage but less than our 0.07 margin. If you’re a Cubs fan it might be OK to bet this for fun since Cubs lines have not been a betting opportunity that often these last few years. Our algorithm would kick both lines however, do not bet.
LAN is fielding a Tier 1 lineup and Cubs’ lineup dropped to Tier 2 the last few days. Cubs still have a Tier 1 Relief staff and both starters are mediocre Tier 3. Let’s look at how Tier data for LAN breaks down. Tier data for CHN was shown in the last Cubs status post a couple days ago.
LAN Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 1 | LAN | 7.75 | |
| SP | 4 | Caleb_Ferguson_LAN | -0.88 | |
| SP | 3 | Kenta_Maeda_LAN | 0.59 | |
| SP | 1 | Ross_Stripling_LAN | 3.53 | |
| SP | 3 | Alex_Wood_LAN | -0.29 | |
| RP | 2 | LAN | 4.39 |
Above is how Lineups, Relief (RP), and starters break down for the Dodgers so far this season. Let’s look at the Dodgers lineup from the last game
LAN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06182017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | Joc_Pederson_LAN | LF | 180 | |
| 1.78 | Max_Muncy_LAN | 1B | 158 | |
| 0.21 | Justin_Turner_LAN | 3B | 90 | |
| 1.28 | Cody_Bellinger_LAN | CF | 274 | |
| 1.89 | Yasmani_Grandal_LAN | C | 225 | |
| 1.36 | Yasiel_Puig_LAN | RF | 198 | |
| 0.25 | Enrique_Hernandez_LAN | SS | 169 | |
| -0.69 | Logan_Forsythe_LAN | 2B | 129 | |
| -0.02 | Caleb_Ferguson_LAN | P | 1 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=7.75 | PA=1424 | WinPct=0.604 |
That is a top tier league lineup with a lot of well above average hitting talent.
That is all for now. If lines go haywire a post will be made but don’t expect that in this series. There have been some real haywire lines with Baltimore the last few days. Not sure the reason but we’ll get into that more later. Still working on the plumbing to hook simulation results with a betting algorithm. Once that’s complete we can see if any of this actually works. Until then ….