Cubs Status 6/23/2018

It has been 10 days since the last update of Cubs Status.  Let’s look at the Cubs today.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
27.7 60.4 318 228 38 26 0.9 1.0 CHN 6/13/2018
23.1 66.1 351 259 42 31 2.8 0.0 CHN 6/23/2018

Pitch up a little, BAT down a little and the Cubs went from +12 real WAA to +11 losing a game which is almost sideways, just a tad below average.  Unearned Runs above average is up again and now in the blue.  <anti jinx on>That’s positive! </>  Not much more to say about team status.  Let’s look at how the Cubs match up with the rest of the league.

Top Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+008+ 4.22 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+021+ 3.15 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
+094+ 1.70 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+097+ 1.68 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+117+ 1.53 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+135+ 1.41 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
+145+ 1.34 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+151+ 1.28 Mike_Montgomery_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF
XXXXX 0.88 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF

Eight guys in the top 200, four in top 100 which is a tad above average.  They have nobody in the bottom 200 dragging the team down which is why they are 11 games up now.  Lester in top ten.  Baez sort of flat lined (played average) since mid May when he was in the top 10.  That is why he’s down to #21 now.   Being ranked #21 is extremely good.

Rizzo was ranked #46 ten days ago and has dropped to #97.  His WAR  also dropped to 0.3 which is another interesting anomaly.  Let’s look at Rizzo’s trajectory since May according to this data model.

Anthony Rizzo 5/3/2018 – 6/23/2018

Date WAA Name_Teamid Pos
2018-05-03 -0.08 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-08 -0.00 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-11 0.48 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-14 1.09 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-17 0.86 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-20 1.51 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-24 1.30 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-27 1.28 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-05-30 1.68 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-02 1.60 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-07 1.81 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-10 2.06 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-13 2.12 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-18 1.93 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-21 1.87 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
2018-06-23 1.70 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B

Note: The above should be presented as a graph but tables generated from database records are all we have.

He had an average April which is struggling for someone as good as Rizzo.  By mid May he was back in form and he peaked on 6/13, coincidentally the day of the last Cubs status here.  The above is an accurate measure of Anthony Rizzo’s contribution to the Cubs being +11 in the real win/loss columns.  Not sure what 0.3 means in WAR or if it is supposed to even mean anything.  Enough of that, let’s look at current tier data.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 CHN 8.71
SP 3 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 0.25
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 0.78
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN 4.22
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.29
SP 2 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 1.28
RP 2 CHN 6.57

CHN Relief pitching dropped to Tier 2.  The league average for relief is WAA=2.68.  League average for lineups is WAA=2.48 and the Cubs have been fluttering between the Tier 1 and Tier 2 boundary game to game.  The simulation uses deltas so doesn’t recognize strict boundaries.

Cubs starting pitching looks decent.  Montgomery is holding it together and now considered Tier 2.  League average for a starting pitcher is 0.28.  League averages for lineups, starters, and relief should rise as the season progresses.  Bad players get replaced by new guys from the minors.

Blast from the Past

Here is team status for the Cubs on this day last season.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-4.5 28.8 343 319 37 36 -3.4 3.2 CHN

PITCH pretty good, almost average BAT and the Cubs were an average team this day last season.  The PITCH above is mostly due to relief.  Right now a daily tier data report is not available in the historical data set.  For more detailed info as to how the Cubs were doing on this day last season check out this Cubs Status from last year.

That is all for now.  New series starting up Monday as the Cubs won’t have a day off until Monday July 2.   Almost ready to present a pick of the day of all games across the league.  The plumbing required to hook the historical dataset into historical lines is still a work in progress and will be for awhile.   This means in the short term if these picks are wrong or if they’re right does not prove or disprove anything.

Minor leagues will be done mid July instead of end of June like last year.  Until then ….