Cubs Dodgers Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Dodgers today in LA with the game starting at 9pm CST.  This game is going to end past midnight here in Chicago.  These two teams met a week ago so Dodgers team status shouldn’t have changed much.  Here is where they’re at today.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
18.6 37.4 360 299 41 35 1.2 3.9 LAN

Decent above average BAT and very good PITCH.  At 41-35 the Dodgers are +6 in the real win/loss columns.  Let’s see how that looks when we drill down some more.  Here is the Ouija Board report for game 1 of this series.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_25_10:10_PM CHN LAN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.408 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Duane_Underwood_Jr._CHN TIER NA
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.615 >
STARTHOME 0.36(0.526) Kenta_Maeda_LAN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
CHN 42 33 LAN 41 35
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == NO_DATA CHN 4.53 runs
LAN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 0 / Relief 2 == NO_DATA LAN 4.53 runs

New guy alert!!!  This is the first MLB game for Duane Underwood which means we have no current MLB data to evaluate him.  Minor league data doesn’t count but if you’re interested baseball-reference.com has a nice table of it here.

Both lines an automatic discard because of this.  CHN lineup has dropped to Tier 3, equal now with LAN lineup.  CHN Relief has dropped to Tier 2 and according to Tiers these two teams are very very equal.  If Underwood is considered Tier 3 because his WAA=0 then the simulations indicate each team will score 4.53 runs.  Win% is nixed but  based upon deltaWAA this is probably a 50/50 game — that is if Underwood can pitch in MLB to an average level.

The market is giving the Dodgers a 3/2 advantage today.  If this game is a tossup the Cubs would be a betting opportunity because 0.500 >> 0.400.  Our betting algorithm won’t allow that however.  Let’s look at Tier data for LAN.

LA Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 LAN 5.46
SP 4 Rich_Hill_LAN -1.01
SP 2 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 1.39
SP 3 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 0.36
SP 1 Ross_Stripling_LAN 3.53
SP 3 Alex_Wood_LAN -0.08
RP 3 LAN 4.41

Former Cub Rich Hill having a bad season this year.  Kershaw is back.  He would be Tier 1 had he not been injured but this model does not recognize if, ands, or buts.  Stripling is their ace right now but that rotation has a lot of potential to dominate the rest of this season.  Here are their Tier 3, average relievers Cubs will face these next three games.

LAN Relief Pitching

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+121+ 1.51 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
+143+ 1.34 Josh_Fields_LAN PITCH
+166+ 1.20 Erik_Goeddel_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.63 Edward_Paredes_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Scott_Alexander_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.17 Daniel_Hudson_LAN PITCH
XXXXX -0.34 Yimi_Garcia_LAN PITCH
XXXXX -0.48 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN PITCH
Total 4.41

And finally, their lineup yesterday.  Certainly do not want to wait for the lineup tonight to come out.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06242018
0.15 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN SS 194
1.32 Max_Muncy_LAN 3B 184
2.08 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF 250
1.28 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B 297
1.09 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 225
-1.20 Logan_Forsythe_LAN 2B 149
1.66 Joc_Pederson_LAN CF 192
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN C 137
-0.21 Rich_Hill_LAN P 9
TOTAL WAA=5.46 PA=1637 WinPct=0.564

Decent lineup but considered Tier 3, average, just like the Cubs’ lineup now.

That is all for today.  All Star balloting closes on July 5 this year.  The ASG game starts almost a week later than last season.  The ASG three part series, like what was done last year, will start on July 1 with the power positions, 1B, 3B, and outfield.  Part 2 covers defensive positions, 2B , SS , and Catcher.  Part 3 does starting and relief pitching which aren’t voted upon by fans.   Until then ….