Cubs start a series with the Dodgers today in LA with the game starting at 9pm CST. This game is going to end past midnight here in Chicago. These two teams met a week ago so Dodgers team status shouldn’t have changed much. Here is where they’re at today.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.6 | 37.4 | 360 | 299 | 41 | 35 | 1.2 | 3.9 | LAN |
Decent above average BAT and very good PITCH. At 41-35 the Dodgers are +6 in the real win/loss columns. Let’s see how that looks when we drill down some more. Here is the Ouija Board report for game 1 of this series.
Ouija Board
DATE 06_25_10:10_PM CHN LAN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.408 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Duane_Underwood_Jr._CHN TIER NA
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.615 >
STARTHOME 0.36(0.526) Kenta_Maeda_LAN TIER 3
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CHN 42 33 LAN 41 35
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == NO_DATA CHN 4.53 runs
LAN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 0 / Relief 2 == NO_DATA LAN 4.53 runs
New guy alert!!! This is the first MLB game for Duane Underwood which means we have no current MLB data to evaluate him. Minor league data doesn’t count but if you’re interested baseball-reference.com has a nice table of it here.
Both lines an automatic discard because of this. CHN lineup has dropped to Tier 3, equal now with LAN lineup. CHN Relief has dropped to Tier 2 and according to Tiers these two teams are very very equal. If Underwood is considered Tier 3 because his WAA=0 then the simulations indicate each team will score 4.53 runs. Win% is nixed but based upon deltaWAA this is probably a 50/50 game — that is if Underwood can pitch in MLB to an average level.
The market is giving the Dodgers a 3/2 advantage today. If this game is a tossup the Cubs would be a betting opportunity because 0.500 >> 0.400. Our betting algorithm won’t allow that however. Let’s look at Tier data for LAN.
LA Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 3 | LAN | 5.46 | |
| SP | 4 | Rich_Hill_LAN | -1.01 | |
| SP | 2 | Clayton_Kershaw_LAN | 1.39 | |
| SP | 3 | Kenta_Maeda_LAN | 0.36 | |
| SP | 1 | Ross_Stripling_LAN | 3.53 | |
| SP | 3 | Alex_Wood_LAN | -0.08 | |
| RP | 3 | LAN | 4.41 |
Former Cub Rich Hill having a bad season this year. Kershaw is back. He would be Tier 1 had he not been injured but this model does not recognize if, ands, or buts. Stripling is their ace right now but that rotation has a lot of potential to dominate the rest of this season. Here are their Tier 3, average relievers Cubs will face these next three games.
LAN Relief Pitching
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +121+ | 1.51 | Kenley_Jansen_LAN | PITCH | |
| +143+ | 1.34 | Josh_Fields_LAN | PITCH | |
| +166+ | 1.20 | Erik_Goeddel_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Edward_Paredes_LAN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Scott_Alexander_LAN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Daniel_Hudson_LAN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Yimi_Garcia_LAN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Caleb_Ferguson_LAN | PITCH | |
| Total | 4.41 |
And finally, their lineup yesterday. Certainly do not want to wait for the lineup tonight to come out.
LAN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06242018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | Enrique_Hernandez_LAN | SS | 194 | |
| 1.32 | Max_Muncy_LAN | 3B | 184 | |
| 2.08 | Matt_Kemp_LAN | LF | 250 | |
| 1.28 | Cody_Bellinger_LAN | 1B | 297 | |
| 1.09 | Yasiel_Puig_LAN | RF | 225 | |
| -1.20 | Logan_Forsythe_LAN | 2B | 149 | |
| 1.66 | Joc_Pederson_LAN | CF | 192 | |
| -0.71 | Austin_Barnes_LAN | C | 137 | |
| -0.21 | Rich_Hill_LAN | P | 9 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=5.46 | PA=1637 | WinPct=0.564 |
Decent lineup but considered Tier 3, average, just like the Cubs’ lineup now.
That is all for today. All Star balloting closes on July 5 this year. The ASG game starts almost a week later than last season. The ASG three part series, like what was done last year, will start on July 1 with the power positions, 1B, 3B, and outfield. Part 2 covers defensive positions, 2B , SS , and Catcher. Part 3 does starting and relief pitching which aren’t voted upon by fans. Until then ….