Cubs Dodgers Update

Since the game yesterday featured a pitcher for the Cubs who had no MLB history it had to be discarded.  Today the Dodgers are starting their best on paper this season pitcher against the Cubs’ best pitcher.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board says.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_26_10:10_PM CHN LAN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.426 ] < 0.417 >
STARTAWAY 4.26(0.713) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.608 ] < 0.600 >
STARTHOME 3.53(0.720) Ross_Stripling_LAN TIER 1
CHN 42 34 LAN 42 35
CHN Lineup 3 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.499 CHN 4.13 runs
LAN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.501 LAN 4.13 runs

These are two teams almost exactly even steven with the Cubs having slightly better relief.  The Tier Combo simulations see this as a coin toss, deltaWAA based upon win/loss records sees this as a coin toss.  The market made LAN a 3/2 favorite.  You need to risk $150 to win $100.  The Cubs are at 0.417.  Since 0.500 > 0.417 + 0.07 the algorithm would bet the Cubs today.

Past results do not affect future results but people can feel that they do and this can affect the market.   None of this has been proven yet however.    It hasn’t been too often these last bunch of years where the lines moved away from the Cubs.  We’ll see tonight.  And, as always, one game does not prove or disprove any of this.  The proof of this handicapping model will come when the simulations are run against the dataset which consists of 7 years of daily Vegas lines.