Cubs Twins Matchup

The Cubs start a 3 day series with the Twins.  Let’s look at who the Cubs will have to face.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-33.3 1.8 318 342 35 42 7.3 0.1 MIN

Terrible hitting, average pitching and at 35-42 they’re -7 in the win/loss columns.  UR is very high which means they don’t make a lot of errors that lead to runs scored.  Let’s see what the markets think about these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_29_5:05_PM MIN CHN

LINEAWAY MIN [ 0.500 ] < 0.455 > +120 $120
STARTAWAY 2.50(0.609) Jose_Berrios_MIN TIER 1
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.565 > -130 $76
STARTHOME 0.99(0.573) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
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MIN 35 42 CHN 44 35
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
MIN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.493 MIN 4.19 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.507 CHN 4.27 runs

CHN lineup is fluttering between Tiers 2 and 3 right now as well as their relief.  The Twins are pitching their best starter this season who is currently Tier 1.  Crunch the simulations and the Cubs are favorites but just barely at 0.507.  According to deltaWAA they should win this 61.6% of the time but that’s a blind seasonal difference.  Both lines in this game a discard.  There is no irrational exuberance from fans of either team today.

Since the MIN line is 0.493 it is greater than the sports book which has them at 0.455 right now.  However 0.493 < 0.455 + 0.07 which means discard.   There is also upward pressure from deltaWAA which applies to CHN that drag MIN down even more.  The lines are usually on the money and maybe there are 2 opportunities per day out of all games.  All four of the LAN CHN matchups were betting opportunities except for game 1 which had to be discarded because of a new guy with no data starting for CHN.

The two new numbers at the end of the LINE records show the official line nomenclature put out by the sports book which gets converted into break even probabilities.  The last number is the amount of money you would win betting $100 on that line.  CHN bettors pay a premium today because they receive less money than they risk.  Let’s look at MIN tier data.

MIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 MIN 0.78
SP 1 Jose_Berrios_MIN 2.50
SP 2 Kyle_Gibson_MIN 1.57
SP 4 Lance_Lynn_MIN -1.13
SP 4 Jake_Odorizzi_MIN -0.86
RP 3 MIN 4.03

According to team status MIN has average PITCH and above looks pretty average.  Here are the relievers the Cubs will have to face ( based upon the latest roster data we have which may not always be the latest in real life ).

MIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+071+ 1.95 Trevor_Hildenberger_MIN PITCH
+162+ 1.26 Matt_Magill_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.88 Zach_Duke_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Fernando_Rodney_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Addison_Reed_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.04 Ryan_Pressly_MIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.02 Taylor_Rogers_MIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.36 Alan_Busenitz_MIN PITCH
-123- -1.24 Matt_Belisle_TOT PITCH
Total 4,03

That’s a Tier 3 average relief pitching (RP).   At WAA=4.6 they would move up to Tier 2 so they’re close.  The simulations use deltas and do not recognize the hard tier boundaries.  MIN Relief is almost above average Tier 2.  Let’s look at their lineup as of yesterday.

MIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06282018
-1.39 Robbie_Grossman_MIN DH 211
3.11 Eddie_Rosario_MIN LF 313
1.24 Eduardo_Escobar_MIN 3B 299
-0.23 Brian_Dozier_MIN 2B 329
-0.90 Logan_Morrison_MIN 1B 263
-0.67 Ehire_Adrianza_MIN SS 187
0.50 Jake_Cave_MIN CF 22
-0.32 Taylor_Motter_TOT RF 31
-0.57 Bobby_Wilson_MIN C 69
TOTAL WAA=0.78 PA=1724 WinPct=0.509

That’s currently considered Tier 3 but close to Tier 4.  Lineups below WAA=0.10 are considered Tier 4 below average now.  As the season progresses averages for lineups, relief, and starters continue to rise.  Although the sum of all players who played this season average to 0 for both pitchers and batters, since the negative value players get washed out the resultant player average of who is left in the league will alway go up.  At the beginning of the season a lineup with WAA=0 would be Tier 3 right in the middle.

That is all for now.  Might do a Cubs status tomorrow which will be a week since the last one.  If the lines go haywire an update will be forthcoming.  All Star Picks Part 1 in two days.  Until then ….