Cubs Status 6/30/2018

It has been a tumultuous week for the Cubs so let’s look at Cubs Status.  Below are team status lines for today and last week when we did this.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
23.1 66.1 351 259 42 31 2.8 0.0 CHN 6/23/2018
39.5 50.7 395 302 45 35 2.8 -0.0 CHN 6/30/2018

BAT up almost as much as PITCH is down and the Cubs went 3-4 losing another game making them +10.  The above numbers are seasonal and don’t necessarily reflect who is on the active roster.  Let’s look how the top Cubs fare against the rest of MLB.  All MLB players from 30 teams, both pitchers and batters get ranked together.  A rank number is only assigned to the top 200 players.

Top Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+009+ 4.24 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+010+ 4.24 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
+064+ 2.06 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+073+ 1.97 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+109+ 1.64 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF
+134+ 1.47 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF
+142+ 1.39 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+171+ 1.18 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
+175+ 1.16 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
+197+ 1.07 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.94 Anthony_Bass_CHN PITCH

Baez is on fire again and at his peak this season and his entire career.  Although not listed Addison Russell is now above water and climbing and a big reason for a couple of the last few wins.  Good job never giving up!

Anthony Rizzo still has a WAR=0.3 LOL!  Someone should seriously  look into how that happened.  Heard JD on TV yesterday exclaim how Rizzo is starting to turn it around.  No JD, Anthony Rizzo is a big reason the Cubs are +10 now.  Actually, he’s +2.06 of the +10 making him the third highest ranked Cub at #64 now.  Rizzo has been consistent each and every season.  WAR is simply very very wrong.  If it’s this wrong on Rizzo it is probably very wrong on many players — as we mention here from time to time.  :-)

BTW: WAR gave Albert Pujols a -1.8 making him the 5th worst player in MLB last season.  Does anyone actually think that’s true?  I suspect there are humans manipulating the algorithm that makes WAR and they didn’t like Pujols last season because he wasn’t performing to his $30M contract.  Whatever.  Enough of that  Let’s look at tier data.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 CHN 9.89
SP 3 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 0.21
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN -0.25
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN 4.24
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.44
SP 3 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 0.84
RP 2 CHN 5.29

Starting pitching has been struggling as of late but they’re still pretty average except for Lester who is top of the league.  A lot of teams would love to have the above rotation.  Hendricks is struggling but he can still make a run for the top in the second half of this season.  No need to panic.  Lineup back to Tier 1 and relief up to Tier 2.  Not quite sure if this roster data is completely accurate.  Cubs pitched the new guy Maples and I don’t see Underwood either.  The Cubs are shuffling players so much they probably have a daily bus route to Iowa now.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+073+ 1.97 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+142+ 1.39 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+197+ 1.07 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.94 Anthony_Bass_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.63 Justin_Wilson_CHN PITCH
XXXXX -0.36 Luke_Farrell_CHN PITCH
-104- -1.39 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
Total 5.28

Not bad.  Duensing having a bad year but he has upside potential so nothing to worry about.  If he climbs back to average, WAA=0, that means another +1.4 for the Cubs’ real WAA.  Past results don’t affect future results.  All that matters is now.  And finally, let’s look at today’s lineup against the Twins.

CHN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06302018
1.18 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 257
1.64 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 255
4.24 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS 302
2.06 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 315
-0.84 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR 295
1.47 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF 244
0.32 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 272
-0.00 David_Bote_CHN BAT 28
-0.17 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN PR 21
TOTAL WAA=9.89 PA=1989 WinPct=0.595

That is considered a Tier 1 top of the league lineup right now — but right by the Tier 1 and 2 border.

That is all for now.  All Star picks start tomorrow or the next day.  Until then ….