Cubs Giants Matchup

Tonight, starting very late at 9pm CST,  the Cubs play the Giants in a three game series.  Let’s see how the Giants are doing so far this season.

-15.0 -7.5 380 407 47 45 -4.6 0.1 SFN

Below average BAT and PITCH and UR and their real WAA above average at 47-45=+2.  They certainly can make a run for the playoffs this year.  The numbers in a team status line reflect an entire season and not necessarily the talent currently playing for that team.  Let’s drill down into this Giants team.  First off, what say the market?

Ouija Board

DATE 07_09_10:15_PM CHN SFN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.483 > +107 $107
STARTAWAY -0.21(0.490) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
LINEHOME SFN [ 0.500 ] < 0.539 > -117 $85
STARTHOME 0.17(0.510) Andrew_Suarez_SFN TIER 3
CHN 51 36 SFN 47 45
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SFN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.558 CHN 4.86 runs
SFN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.442 SFN 4.24 runs

Hendricks having an off year but still considered average.  This is Suarez’ first season and he’s also pitching average.  Average isn’t bad and it beats dragging your team down into below average territory.

The lines started with a don’t know even steven with CHN bettors paying the juice — which usually starts out high at the beginning.   As of 10am SFN is favored with a break even probability of 0.539 and the Cubs are at 0.483.    DeltaWAA based upon seasonal win/loss records between the two games favor the Cubs at 60% .  Giants then would be at 1-0.600=0.400.  Tier Combo simulations also favor the Cubs.  If the Cubs line holds they are a betting opportunity today because 0.558 > 0.483 + 0.07 ( rough estimate so far ).  Since the Cubs are favored with deltaWAA there is no wave off correction.

We also saw lines shift when the Cubs played LAN awhile ago making CHN a betting opportunity for all four games — except the first was waved off because a new guy started.  It has been observed that home fans frequently become exuberant and influence the line in favor of the home team — even when that home team is struggling.  More on this to come as this season progresses.

Let’s see how SFN stands up with the rest of the league.

SFN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 SFN 2.67
SP 3 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN 0.94
SP 2 Johnny_Cueto_SFN 1.78
SP 3 Dereck_Rodriguez_SFN 0.94
SP 5 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN -2.27
SP 3 Andrew_Suarez_SFN 0.17
RP 3 SFN 4.56

Hello Jeff Samardzija!   How’s your FIP doing?  🙂  Average lineup, average Relief (RP) and pretty much an average starting rotation — which one should expect from a team with an average record.  Let’s look at the relievers on this average RP.

SFN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+060+ 2.37 Tony_Watson_SFN PITCH
+085+ 1.95 Reyes_Moronta_SFN PITCH
+110+ 1.74 Will_Smith_SFN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Sam_Dyson_SFN PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Mark_Melancon_SFN PITCH
XXXXX -0.61 Ray_Black_SFN PITCH
XXXXX -0.73 Derek_Holland_SFN PITCH
-156- -1.18 Ty_Blach_SFN PITCH
Total 4.54

Two guys in top 100 which is pretty good.  And finally here is their  lineup from yesterday which should be close to what Hendricks will face.

SFN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 07082018
-0.48 Buster_Posey_SFN CR-1B 307
0.27 Andrew_McCutchen_SFN RF 374
1.16 Brandon_Belt_SFN 1B 313
0.32 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS 340
0.08 Pablo_Sandoval_SFN 3B-1B 205
1.55 Alen_Hanson_SFN 2B 146
0.02 Gorkys_Hernandez_SFN CF-LF 258
-0.25 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN BAT 15
TOTAL WAA=2.67 PA=1958 WinPct=0.526

No Entry means new guy alert.  His name is Steven Duggar who went 2/6 yesterday and now close to leading MLB in batting average.  🙂   That’s a pretty standard run of the mill average lineup for an average team.  We’ll see how this plays out.  Maybe Cubs players will be jet lagged from having to fly across the county after their game yesterday.

That’s all for today.  Until then ….