Cubs Cardinals Matchup

Tonight the Cubs start the second half of the season with the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s take a look at what the Cubs will face these next three days.

SLN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.2 24.9 132 105 17 12 3.0 -0.7 SLN 5/4/2018
-13.5 32.9 281 263 36 30 -0.8 -0.6 SLN 6/15/2018
-12.0 31.9 413 402 48 46 -8.9 -0.0 SLN 7/19/2018

Above are three status lines showing the current Cardinals team and their lines the last two times they played the Cubs.  They went 12-16 losing four games giving them a real WAA=+2 , or about where the Cubs were this time last season.  Their UR is horrible which is unusual for a Cardinals team.  PITCH and BAT moved sideways so most those four games they lost came from errors.  Let’s hear from the beyond….

Ouija Board

DATE 07_19_7:05_PM SLN CHN

LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.413 ] < 0.410 > +144 $244
STARTAWAY 2.35(0.617) Carlos_Martinez_SLN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.603 ] < 0.606 > -154 $164
STARTHOME 0.69(0.528) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
SLN 48 46 CHN 55 38
DELTAWAA 15 WINPCT 0.599 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
SLN Lineup 4 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.451 SLN 3.99 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SLN Starter 2 / Relief 5 == 0.549 CHN 4.52 runs
--------------------------------------------
EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV == SLN 98 CHN 98
TCsim    EV == SLN 110 CHN 90

Hendricks is pitching and he’s getting a good premium at 60% today.  DeltaWAA is at 60% too but Tier Combo simulations have Cubs at 55%.  Expected Value for TCsim reflects this making a $100 SLN bet worth $110.  DeltaWAA will drag that down and it’s still below our 120 threshold so both lines an easy discard today.

SLN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 4 SLN -0.97
SP 2 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 1.66
SP 2 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 2.35
SP 1 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 3.88
RP 5 SLN -1.62

With their underwater BAT according to run differential it should be expected they have a poor lineup, and they do at Tier 4.  Relief (RP) is the worst at Tier 5 and they balance that out with a pretty decent starting rotation.  Obviously they have more than three starters but the other two aren’t listed on their roster.  Doesn’t matter.  Martinez is their second best pitching tonight.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 0.80 John_Gant_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.69 Jordan_Hicks_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.36 Brett_Cecil_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Mike_Mayers_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.00 Sam_Tuivailala_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.78 Luke_Gregerson_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.88 Tyler_Lyons_SLN PITCH
-053- -2.10 Greg_Holland_SLN PITCH
Total -1.62

And that’s a Tier 5 relief staff.  Hopefully they don’t have some kind of epiphany these next couple of days.  Here is SLN lineup the last game they played before all star break.

SLN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 07152018
1.20 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B-1B-2B 374
0.92 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 247
0.25 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 201
-0.04 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 373
-0.32 Jedd_Gyorko_SLN 3B-2B 229
-1.47 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 263
-0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF 270
-0.21 Harrison_Bader_SLN RF-CF 203
-0.61 Miles_Mikolas_SLN PR 38
TOTAL WAA=-0.97 PA=2198 WinPct=0.492

Average lineup is +3.84 nowadays so the above is right in the middle of Tier 4.  Average for team lineups, like other categories, will increase as the season progresses.  Not much more to say about the above.  Kolten Wong has a WAR=+2.1 ranked #108 in their system BTW.

That is all for now.  Working on season simulations right now.  Also need to do minor leagues soon.  Until then ….