Tonight the Cubs start the second half of the season with the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s take a look at what the Cubs will face these next three days.
SLN Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.2 | 24.9 | 132 | 105 | 17 | 12 | 3.0 | -0.7 | SLN | 5/4/2018 |
| -13.5 | 32.9 | 281 | 263 | 36 | 30 | -0.8 | -0.6 | SLN | 6/15/2018 |
| -12.0 | 31.9 | 413 | 402 | 48 | 46 | -8.9 | -0.0 | SLN | 7/19/2018 |
Above are three status lines showing the current Cardinals team and their lines the last two times they played the Cubs. They went 12-16 losing four games giving them a real WAA=+2 , or about where the Cubs were this time last season. Their UR is horrible which is unusual for a Cardinals team. PITCH and BAT moved sideways so most those four games they lost came from errors. Let’s hear from the beyond….
Ouija Board
DATE 07_19_7:05_PM SLN CHN
LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.413 ] < 0.410 > +144 $244
STARTAWAY 2.35(0.617) Carlos_Martinez_SLN TIER 2
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.603 ] < 0.606 > -154 $164
STARTHOME 0.69(0.528) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
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SLN 48 46 CHN 55 38
DELTAWAA 15 WINPCT 0.599 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
SLN Lineup 4 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.451 SLN 3.99 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SLN Starter 2 / Relief 5 == 0.549 CHN 4.52 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV == SLN 98 CHN 98
TCsim EV == SLN 110 CHN 90
Hendricks is pitching and he’s getting a good premium at 60% today. DeltaWAA is at 60% too but Tier Combo simulations have Cubs at 55%. Expected Value for TCsim reflects this making a $100 SLN bet worth $110. DeltaWAA will drag that down and it’s still below our 120 threshold so both lines an easy discard today.
SLN Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 4 | SLN | -0.97 | |
| SP | 2 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 1.66 | |
| SP | 2 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | 2.35 | |
| SP | 1 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 3.88 | |
| RP | 5 | SLN | -1.62 |
With their underwater BAT according to run differential it should be expected they have a poor lineup, and they do at Tier 4. Relief (RP) is the worst at Tier 5 and they balance that out with a pretty decent starting rotation. Obviously they have more than three starters but the other two aren’t listed on their roster. Doesn’t matter. Martinez is their second best pitching tonight.
SLN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.80 | John_Gant_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Jordan_Hicks_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Brett_Cecil_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.29 | Mike_Mayers_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Sam_Tuivailala_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.78 | Luke_Gregerson_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.88 | Tyler_Lyons_SLN | PITCH | |
| -053- | -2.10 | Greg_Holland_SLN | PITCH | |
| Total | -1.62 |
And that’s a Tier 5 relief staff. Hopefully they don’t have some kind of epiphany these next couple of days. Here is SLN lineup the last game they played before all star break.
SLN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 07152018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | 3B-1B-2B | 374 | |
| 0.92 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | CR | 247 | |
| 0.25 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 201 | |
| -0.04 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 373 | |
| -0.32 | Jedd_Gyorko_SLN | 3B-2B | 229 | |
| -1.47 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 263 | |
| -0.69 | Dexter_Fowler_SLN | RF | 270 | |
| -0.21 | Harrison_Bader_SLN | RF-CF | 203 | |
| -0.61 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | PR | 38 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-0.97 | PA=2198 | WinPct=0.492 |
Average lineup is +3.84 nowadays so the above is right in the middle of Tier 4. Average for team lineups, like other categories, will increase as the season progresses. Not much more to say about the above. Kolten Wong has a WAR=+2.1 ranked #108 in their system BTW.
That is all for now. Working on season simulations right now. Also need to do minor leagues soon. Until then ….