Cubs Diamondbacks Matchup

Cubs start a three game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Wrigley.  Let’s take a look at the team the Cubs will face.

ARI Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
33.9 80.6 492 386 56 42 -9.4 0.9 ARI 7.23.2017
-0.1 37.7 442 396 54 46 5.4 2.0 ARI 7.23.2018

BAT almost exactly mediocre, PITCH very good as well as UR, and this team has a real WAA=54-46= +8.  They’re in the hunt for the playoffs again this year.  Last year on this day they were cruising at +14 with incredible PITCH and very good BAT.  Let’s drill down and see where their problems lie.  First, what say the people?

Ouija Board

DATE 07_23_8:05_PM ARI CHN

LINEAWAY ARI [ 0.488 ] < 0.507 > -103 $197
STARTAWAY 2.33(0.586) Patrick_Corbin_ARI TIER 2
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.535 ] < 0.517 > -107 $193
STARTHOME 0.17(0.527) Luke_Farrell_CHN TIER 3
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ARI 54 46 CHN 58 40
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
ARI Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.489 ARI 4.46 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> ARI Starter 2 / Relief 2 == 0.511 CHN 4.59 runs
--------------------------------------------
EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV ARI 82 CHN 112
TCsim EV ARI 96 CHN 99

The market started out favoring CHN at 0.535 and slipped into even steven territory.  Last number in LINE records is value on a $100 bet, second to last is sports book nomenclature included for reference only.  All the other line numbers derived from this number.

Cubs starting Luke Farrell who is listed as a reliever.  Wonder if Joe Maddon is using this philosophy today or maybe he’s running out of starters after playing 5 games in the last 4 days.

Tier Combo simulations reflect the market almost exactly so this entire game is a clear discard.  There is no point in betting unless you have an advantage.  The Cubs have a much better win/loss record so their deltaWAA is very high making their Expected Value high if you only subscribe to deltaWAA.    deltaWAA EV value is only used to wave off bets, never to make bets.  Tier Combo simulations reflect the value of talent playing for each team today.  Also, our margin is 120 and deltaWAA EV for CHN is only 112 so still a discard.

ARI Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 ARI 5.75
SP 2 Patrick_Corbin_ARI 2.35
SP 4 Zack_Godley_ARI -1.51
SP 1 Zack_Greinke_ARI 3.04
SP 4 Robbie_Ray_ARI -1.64
RP 2 ARI 5.40

Tier 3 average lineup which should be expected with an average BAT according to seasonal run differential.  Two good starters, two not so good starters and the Cubs face Corbin, one of their good starters tonight.  Tier 2 relief means good.  Again this should be expected based upon their positive PITCH in team status.  Let’s look at ARI relievers the Cubs will see these next few games.

ARI Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+083+ 2.12 Andrew_Chafin_ARI PITCH
+122+ 1.74 Yoshihisa_Hirano_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 Archie_Bradley_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Brad_Boxberger_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 0.84 Silvino_Bracho_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.17 Randall_Delgado_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.46 Matt_Koch_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.63 Jorge_De_La_Rosa_ARI PITCH
Total 5.39

That’s a Tier 2 relief squad.  Here is their Tier 3 average lineup from yesterday.  Don’t want to wait for tonight’s lineup to be posted.

NoteThe historical dataset will calculate tier on current day posted lineups.  We can’t do that every day with current year sims but they shouldn’t be affected that much.  Tier Combo simulations are using lineups from yesterday for all teams today.  Mondays are usually all night games in MLB.

ARI Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 07222018
1.30 David_Peralta_ARI LF 384
1.85 Paul_Goldschmidt_ARI 1B 427
2.21 A.J._Pollock_ARI CF 217
-1.07 Steven_Souza_ARI RF 94
1.07 Jake_Lamb_ARI 3B 225
1.36 Daniel_Descalso_ARI 3B-2B 279
0.27 Nick_Ahmed_ARI SS 347
-1.16 Jeff_Mathis_ARI CR 124
-0.08 Zack_Greinke_ARI PR 43
TOTAL WAA=5.75 PA=2140 WinPct=0.552

The average lineup now is WAA=+3.15 and Tier 2 boundary is WAA=+7.27 so they’re in the middle.  WinPct is a rate included for reference only.  It is not to be used for value ranking.

That is all for now.  Minor league rankings coming soon if I get motivated.  We will definitely have a series on how the White Sox are doing since their fire sale last season.  Until then ….