Cubs Cardinals Matchup — Again!

The Cubs play the Cardinals again.  We just did this a week ago which can be read here.  Let’s quickly run through where the Cardinals are as of today.

SLN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-1.8 22.4 455 444 51 51 -9.1 -0.4 SLN

BAT average, PITCH above water but middle of the MLB pack.  UR is still terrible.  It will take months to recover from that.  White Sox are worst with UR = -20.6  BTW.  This is an average team and average teams win 50% of the games they play.  Let’s see what the people say.  Survey says!

Ouija Board

DATE 07_27_8:15_PM CHN SLN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.493 ] < 0.490 > +104 $204
STARTAWAY 0.71(0.539) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
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LINEHOME SLN [ 0.531 ] < 0.533 > -114 $187
STARTHOME -1.60(0.433) Luke_Weaver_SLN TIER 4
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CHN 60 42 SLN 51 51
DELTAWAA 18 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> SLN Starter 4 / Relief 5 == 0.540 CHN 4.90 runs
SLN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.460 SLN 4.46 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV CHN 126 SLN 72
TCsim EV CHN 110 SLN 86

Cardinals are favored with a 53.3% break even probability, Cubs at 49%.  Tier Combo simulations are opposite of that as well as deltaWAA.  deltaWAA is based upon seasonal wins and losses, Tier Combo is based on the value of players playing today.  There is a relationship between the deltaWAA and Tier Combo.  That relationship is unknown right now.  TCsim EV for CHN is under our 120 threshold as well as SLN so both lines a discard tonight.  It’s possible that this game could be a CHN bet in the future as this relationship becomes better understood.

Due to late games lineup data is from last game played.  Change in lineup value could move TCsim EV value a few points in either direction but it wouldn’t be much.  Change in Vegas lines throughout the day will affect Expected Value (EV) as well.

SLN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 SLN 7.48
SP 2 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 1.72
SP 3 John_Gant_SLN 0.92
SP 3 Austin_Gomber_SLN 0.34
SP 1 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 3.86
RP 5 SLN -3.00

This table shows all starters listed on their roster.  The value of their lineup at +7.48 is almost exactly the value of Cubs lineup which is at +7.56.   For some reason Luke Weaver isn’t on the roster data we get.  SLN has terrible relief right now.

That is all for now. No need to list their relief or lineup.  Cubs played yesterday and Cardinals had a day off and are playing at home.  Not sure which team that helps or hurts.    Until then ….