Cubs Status End of July

Since it’s the end of July which means around 2/3 of a season has been played, let’s look at Cubs Status.  Below are team status lines for today and the last time we did this during All Star break.

CHN Team Status

51.0 58.9 476 362 55 38 4.1 -0.0 CHN 7/16/2018
55.6 37.9 527 428 61 44 4.6 0.9 CHN 7/30/2018

BAT about the same, PITCH tanked and at 61-44 the Cubs are +17 in the win/loss columns, exactly where they were two weeks ago.  UR is about the same   They maintained an average record even after bleeding runs making them closer to their PE estimate based on run differential.

Top Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+007+ 5.77 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B
+049+ 2.98 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+076+ 2.33 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+087+ 2.18 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
+094+ 2.08 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+115+ 1.89 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+149+ 1.62 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+151+ 1.62 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF
+154+ 1.60 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
+155+ 1.60 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.20 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
XXXXX 1.03 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH

Rizzo climbing once again and Baez still clinging to a top ten spot which is very difficult.  He’s leading the race for NL MVP right now according to this data model.   Lots of players in top 100 and top 200 which is good.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 CHN 12.03
SP 4 Cole_Hamels_TOT -1.57
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 0.44
SP 1 Jon_Lester_CHN 2.98
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.38
SP 3 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 0.17
RP 3 CHN 4.98

Cole Hamels starts his Cubs journey at Tier 4.  Past results don’t reflect future results and we covered his capability here.   Lineup from yesterday ( and most days ) is top of MLB.  Relief is at Tier 3 average now.  Chatwood is now part of the relief staff who are listed below.  League average for team relief is at WAA=+2.76 now.   These averages are expected to rise as the season progresses.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+076+ 2.33 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+149+ 1.62 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+153+ 1.60 Jesse_Chavez_TOT PITCH
+155+ 1.60 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Justin_Wilson_CHN PITCH
-084- -1.89 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN PITCH
-053- -2.25 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
Total 5.01

Jesse Chavez wasn’t listed in Top Cubs because that sorts on CHN records.  His total is in the top 100 and he’s +0.78 with the Cubs so far.  Rosario pitching well and Bass must be back in Iowa.  Not sure if the Cubs acquired another reliever at trade deadline.

Not much more to say about this team as we enter the dog days of August.  Pretty soon the Cubs are going to have to start worrying about winning the Division.  Maintaining +17 is around 90 wins at the end of the season which may not cut it for the NL Central.  As long as they have enough energy to finish the last 1/3 of strong they should be fine.   We’ll start looking at the playoff horse race at the end of August through September.   AL will be tough to beat in the World Series this year.  Until then ….