Cubs Pirates Matchup Part 3

Cubs start a series in Pittsburgh at 7pm Eastern Time instead of Central. Let’s again look at the Pirates now and the last two times Cubs played them.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
21.6 -1.0 249 228 28 24 0.5 -0.0 PIT 5/28/2018
19.2 -12.9 289 284 31 31 -0.7 -0.5 PIT 6/8/2018
15.1 -7.1 484 480 55 52 -2.4 -1.6 PIT 7/31/2018

They went from +4 at the end of May and now are at +2 in the win/loss columns.  PIT is an  archetype of a team moving sideways.   Both BAT and PITCH down a little as well as UR.  Let’s see what the markets have to say about tonight to get an idea what they think of PIT.

Ouija Board

DATE 07_31_7:05_PM CHN PIT

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.541 ] < 0.512 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 2.98(0.611) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME PIT [ 0.481 ] < 0.512 > -110 $190
STARTHOME 1.11(0.542) Jameson_Taillon_PIT TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
CHN 61 44 PIT 55 52
DELTAWAA 14 WINPCT 0.599 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> PIT Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.561 CHN 4.75 runs
PIT Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.439 PIT 4.13 runs
--------------------------------------------
EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV CHN 114 PIT 76
TCsim EV CHN 107 PIT 83

The markets pin this game at even steven.  The money betting PIT equal the money betting CHN.  Tier Combo simulations have Cubs at 0.561 and that translates into an Expected Value (EV) of 107 betting the CHN line, below our 120 threshold.  PIT line is a clear discard.

The Cubs are what is commonly known as 7 games ahead of Pittsburgh which translates into a deltaWAA = 2 * 7 = 14.  Not too complicated.  The table lookup give the Cubs almost 60% chance of winning tonight which translates into an EV = 114.   The markets are favoring the Pirates a little in this game which is not unusual for a home team that has a glimmer of hope at making a run for it this season.  We’ll see.  Let’s drill down into the Pirates.

Note: The below is based on roster data that might not be completely correct.  It shouldn’t affect Tier allocations that much.

PIT Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 PIT 5.82
SP 4 Nick_Kingham_PIT -0.94
SP 3 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 0.80
SP 3 Ivan_Nova_PIT -0.53
SP 3 Jameson_Taillon_PIT 1.11
SP 3 Trevor_Williams_PIT 0.63
RP 3 PIT 4.26

The above is exactly what you would expect from an average team.  Past results don’t affect future results but the odds of so many players having an epiphany and deciding to make a run reduces with  the increase in number of players who need to pick it up.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+107+ 1.97 Kyle_Crick_PIT PITCH
+185+ 1.34 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 1.24 Edgar_Santana_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 1.16 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.27 Tyler_Glasnow_PIT PITCH
-176- -1.18 Steven_Brault_PIT PITCH
Total 4.26

That’s a Tier 3 average relief staff.  We’ll finish this out with their last lineup.

PIT Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-0.42 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 167
2.58 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 380
2.81 Gregory_Polanco_PIT RF 388
-0.15 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B 331
1.09 David_Freese_PIT 3B-1B 192
0.76 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 201
-0.82 Austin_Meadows_PIT CF-RF-LF 162
0.13 Sean_Rodriguez_PIT 2B-SS 162
-0.17 Joe_Musgrove_PIT PR 16
TOTAL WAA=5.82 PA=1999 WinPct=0.556

The league average for lineups is +3.82 noe.  Not much more there is to say.  Gregory Polanco has a WAR=0.4 BTW.   From now on we’ll call that the Rizzo effect.  :-)

That is all for now.  Still working on current year simulation, bug fixing and other stuff.  Since the trade deadline is almost over will do minors mid August before September call ups.  Until then ….