Cubs start a series in Pittsburgh at 7pm Eastern Time instead of Central. Let’s again look at the Pirates now and the last two times Cubs played them.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.6 | -1.0 | 249 | 228 | 28 | 24 | 0.5 | -0.0 | PIT | 5/28/2018 |
| 19.2 | -12.9 | 289 | 284 | 31 | 31 | -0.7 | -0.5 | PIT | 6/8/2018 |
| 15.1 | -7.1 | 484 | 480 | 55 | 52 | -2.4 | -1.6 | PIT | 7/31/2018 |
They went from +4 at the end of May and now are at +2 in the win/loss columns. PIT is an archetype of a team moving sideways. Both BAT and PITCH down a little as well as UR. Let’s see what the markets have to say about tonight to get an idea what they think of PIT.
Ouija Board
DATE 07_31_7:05_PM CHN PIT
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.541 ] < 0.512 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 2.98(0.611) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 1
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LINEHOME PIT [ 0.481 ] < 0.512 > -110 $190
STARTHOME 1.11(0.542) Jameson_Taillon_PIT TIER 3
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CHN 61 44 PIT 55 52
DELTAWAA 14 WINPCT 0.599 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> PIT Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.561 CHN 4.75 runs
PIT Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.439 PIT 4.13 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV CHN 114 PIT 76
TCsim EV CHN 107 PIT 83
The markets pin this game at even steven. The money betting PIT equal the money betting CHN. Tier Combo simulations have Cubs at 0.561 and that translates into an Expected Value (EV) of 107 betting the CHN line, below our 120 threshold. PIT line is a clear discard.
The Cubs are what is commonly known as 7 games ahead of Pittsburgh which translates into a deltaWAA = 2 * 7 = 14. Not too complicated. The table lookup give the Cubs almost 60% chance of winning tonight which translates into an EV = 114. The markets are favoring the Pirates a little in this game which is not unusual for a home team that has a glimmer of hope at making a run for it this season. We’ll see. Let’s drill down into the Pirates.
Note: The below is based on roster data that might not be completely correct. It shouldn’t affect Tier allocations that much.
PIT Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 3 | PIT | 5.82 | |
| SP | 4 | Nick_Kingham_PIT | -0.94 | |
| SP | 3 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | 0.80 | |
| SP | 3 | Ivan_Nova_PIT | -0.53 | |
| SP | 3 | Jameson_Taillon_PIT | 1.11 | |
| SP | 3 | Trevor_Williams_PIT | 0.63 | |
| RP | 3 | PIT | 4.26 |
The above is exactly what you would expect from an average team. Past results don’t affect future results but the odds of so many players having an epiphany and deciding to make a run reduces with the increase in number of players who need to pick it up.
PIT Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +107+ | 1.97 | Kyle_Crick_PIT | PITCH | |
| +185+ | 1.34 | Richard_Rodriguez_PIT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Edgar_Santana_PIT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.16 | Felipe_Vazquez_PIT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Tyler_Glasnow_PIT | PITCH | |
| -176- | -1.18 | Steven_Brault_PIT | PITCH | |
| Total | 4.26 |
That’s a Tier 3 average relief staff. We’ll finish this out with their last lineup.
PIT Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.42 | Adam_Frazier_PIT | 2B | 167 | |
| 2.58 | Starling_Marte_PIT | CF | 380 | |
| 2.81 | Gregory_Polanco_PIT | RF | 388 | |
| -0.15 | Colin_Moran_PIT | 3B | 331 | |
| 1.09 | David_Freese_PIT | 3B-1B | 192 | |
| 0.76 | Elias_Diaz_PIT | CR | 201 | |
| -0.82 | Austin_Meadows_PIT | CF-RF-LF | 162 | |
| 0.13 | Sean_Rodriguez_PIT | 2B-SS | 162 | |
| -0.17 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | PR | 16 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=5.82 | PA=1999 | WinPct=0.556 |
The league average for lineups is +3.82 noe. Not much more there is to say. Gregory Polanco has a WAR=0.4 BTW. From now on we’ll call that the Rizzo effect. 🙂
That is all for now. Still working on current year simulation, bug fixing and other stuff. Since the trade deadline is almost over will do minors mid August before September call ups. Until then ….