Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs play the Padres tonight at Wrigley.  Let’s see the team the Cubs will face.

SDN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-78.2 -37.3 405 525 42 68 -7.6 2.2 SDN

Bad BAT, bad PITCH, bad UR and this team is -26 in the win/loss columns.  There used to be a team on the north side of Chicago who put up these kind of numbers many years ago.  But I digress.  The above are seasonal numbers that may or may not reflect the current composition of a team.  Let’s here from the people.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_02_8:05_PM SDN CHN

LINEAWAY SDN [ 0.364 ] < 0.408 > +145 $245
STARTAWAY 0.80(0.560) Robbie_Erlin_SDN TIER 3
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.649 ] < 0.608 > -155 $164
STARTHOME 0.19(0.510) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
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SDN 42 68 CHN 62 45
DELTAWAA 43 WINPCT 0.664 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
SDN Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.420 SDN 3.92 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SDN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.580 CHN 4.74 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV SDN 82 CHN 109
TCsim EV SDN 103 CHN 95

Markets have Cubs favored by 60.8% break even probability.  Both starters are mediocre Tier 3.  Tier Combo simulations have the Cubs at 58% which is close and deltaWAA is much higher at 66.4%.   This puts Cubs Expected Value based on wins and losses at $109 on a $100 risk.  None of the Expected Values exceed 120 and since deltaWAA is seasonal it is only to be used to wave off bets.  Both lines a clear discard.  The simulations (and the market) show the Padres may have a better team than their win/loss record would suggest.  Here are Tier ratings for SDN

SDN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 SDN -8.44
SP 3 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 0.61
SP 5 Clayton_Richard_SDN -2.92
SP 4 Tyson_Ross_SDN -0.92
RP 3 SDN 5.27

Lineup terrible as should be expected.  There are some starters missing from our roster data.  Erlin, who starts today, is listed as a reliever.  Their relief staff (RP) is Tier 3 average.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+063+ 2.56 Kirby_Yates_SDN PITCH
+129+ 1.83 Craig_Stammen_SDN PITCH
+169+ 1.47 Matt_Strahm_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.84 Robbie_Erlin_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.61 Jose_Castillo_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.42 Phil_Maton_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.06 Robert_Stock_SDN PITCH
XXXXX -0.25 Jordan_Lyles_SDN PITCH
XXXXX -0.71 Walker_Lockett_SDN PITCH
-120- -1.53 Phil_Hughes_TOT PITCH
Total 5.3

Lots of relievers, many who most likely start every now and then.  The border line for Tier 2 is 5.32 so they’re right on the edge.

SDN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Jul_31_4:10_PM
-2.27 Travis_Jankowski_SDN RF-LF-CF 267
-1.55 Manuel_Margot_SDN CF 337
1.16 Wil_Myers_SDN LF 169
-1.66 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 445
-0.63 Austin_Hedges_SDN CR 160
-2.46 Freddy_Galvis_SDN SS 426
0.67 Christian_Villanueva_SDN 3B 323
-1.28 Carlos_Asuaje_SDN 2B 196
-0.42 Clayton_Richard_SDN PR 43
TOTAL WAA=-8.44 PA=2366 WinPct=0.431

It takes a team to hit this poorly.

That is all for today. Until then ….