Cubs play the Padres tonight at Wrigley. Let’s see the team the Cubs will face.
SDN Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -78.2 | -37.3 | 405 | 525 | 42 | 68 | -7.6 | 2.2 | SDN |
Bad BAT, bad PITCH, bad UR and this team is -26 in the win/loss columns. There used to be a team on the north side of Chicago who put up these kind of numbers many years ago. But I digress. The above are seasonal numbers that may or may not reflect the current composition of a team. Let’s here from the people.
Ouija Board
DATE 08_02_8:05_PM SDN CHN
LINEAWAY SDN [ 0.364 ] < 0.408 > +145 $245
STARTAWAY 0.80(0.560) Robbie_Erlin_SDN TIER 3
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.649 ] < 0.608 > -155 $164
STARTHOME 0.19(0.510) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
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SDN 42 68 CHN 62 45
DELTAWAA 43 WINPCT 0.664 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
SDN Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.420 SDN 3.92 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SDN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.580 CHN 4.74 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV SDN 82 CHN 109
TCsim EV SDN 103 CHN 95
Markets have Cubs favored by 60.8% break even probability. Both starters are mediocre Tier 3. Tier Combo simulations have the Cubs at 58% which is close and deltaWAA is much higher at 66.4%. This puts Cubs Expected Value based on wins and losses at $109 on a $100 risk. None of the Expected Values exceed 120 and since deltaWAA is seasonal it is only to be used to wave off bets. Both lines a clear discard. The simulations (and the market) show the Padres may have a better team than their win/loss record would suggest. Here are Tier ratings for SDN
SDN Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 5 | SDN | -8.44 | |
| SP | 3 | Joey_Lucchesi_SDN | 0.61 | |
| SP | 5 | Clayton_Richard_SDN | -2.92 | |
| SP | 4 | Tyson_Ross_SDN | -0.92 | |
| RP | 3 | SDN | 5.27 |
Lineup terrible as should be expected. There are some starters missing from our roster data. Erlin, who starts today, is listed as a reliever. Their relief staff (RP) is Tier 3 average.
SDN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +063+ | 2.56 | Kirby_Yates_SDN | PITCH | |
| +129+ | 1.83 | Craig_Stammen_SDN | PITCH | |
| +169+ | 1.47 | Matt_Strahm_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Robbie_Erlin_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.61 | Jose_Castillo_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Phil_Maton_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Robert_Stock_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Jordan_Lyles_SDN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.71 | Walker_Lockett_SDN | PITCH | |
| -120- | -1.53 | Phil_Hughes_TOT | PITCH | |
| Total | 5.3 |
Lots of relievers, many who most likely start every now and then. The border line for Tier 2 is 5.32 so they’re right on the edge.
SDN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Jul_31_4:10_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.27 | Travis_Jankowski_SDN | RF-LF-CF | 267 | |
| -1.55 | Manuel_Margot_SDN | CF | 337 | |
| 1.16 | Wil_Myers_SDN | LF | 169 | |
| -1.66 | Eric_Hosmer_SDN | 1B | 445 | |
| -0.63 | Austin_Hedges_SDN | CR | 160 | |
| -2.46 | Freddy_Galvis_SDN | SS | 426 | |
| 0.67 | Christian_Villanueva_SDN | 3B | 323 | |
| -1.28 | Carlos_Asuaje_SDN | 2B | 196 | |
| -0.42 | Clayton_Richard_SDN | PR | 43 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-8.44 | PA=2366 | WinPct=0.431 |
It takes a team to hit this poorly.
That is all for today. Until then ….