Cubs Royals Matchup

Cubs start a 3 game series with the Kansas City Royals today.  Let’s see how the Royals fare with the rest of MLB.

KCA Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-84.3 -120.5 413 613 34 77 5.4 -0.6 KCA

OMG.  They have league worst BAT (hitting) and league worst PITCH and this has led to a real team WAA=34-77=-43.  It doesn’t get much worse than this ever.  At least they’re above water in UR.  :-)   Cubs, however, let the San Diego Padres score a bunch of runs on them.  Past results can’t predict the short term future.  Cubs hitting and pitching should pad their stats these next three games but nothing is guaranteed.  Let’s see what the people have to say.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_06_8:15_PM CHN KCA

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.667 ] < 0.661 > -195 $151
STARTAWAY -1.07(0.460) Cole_Hamels_TOT TIER 4
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LINEHOME KCA [ 0.351 ] < 0.364 > +175 $275
STARTHOME -2.35(0.409) Jakob_Junis_KCA TIER 5
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CHN 64 47 KCA 34 77
DELTAWAA 60 WINPCT 0.711 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> KCA Starter 5 / Relief 5 == 0.590 CHN 4.98 runs
KCA Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 4 / Relief 2 == 0.410 KCA 4.02 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV CHN 107 KCA 79
TCsim EV CHN 89 KCA 113

Still playing with colors and formatting for this Ouija Board report.  Cubs favored by close to 2-1 today.  Hamels is considered a below average pitcher at Tier 4 and Junis terrible at Tier 5.   The difference in deltaWAA maxes out at 48 and right now the Cubs are +60 or 30 games ahead of KCA.  Games with differences this large are relatively rare so everything above 48 had to be lumped into the same set.   Table lookup gives them a 0.711 probability of winning today based upon seasonal wins and losses alone.

Tier Combos simulations give the Cubs only a 0.590 advantage today because they have a below average pitcher and both their lineup and relief are at Tier 2.  This means their current talent is below what deltaWAA expects.  The relationship between these two answers are unknown right now.

KCA has a TCsim EV of $113 on a $100 risk.  Their deltaWAA EV is way below 100 at 79 so this line is a clear discard.  The current threshold requires  TCsim EV of 120 or above with a corresponding deltaWAA EV.  None of the above EVs work for either team today.

KCA Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 KCA -9.18
SP 4 Danny_Duffy_KCA -1.43
SP 3 Heath_Fillmyer_KCA 0.27
SP 5 Jakob_Junis_KCA -2.35
SP 2 Brad_Keller_KCA 1.66
SP 5 Burch_Smith_KCA -2.96
RP 5 KCA -7.64

The above table lists Tier Data for each category.   Relief and Lineups are tiered as a group of players, starters are evaluated individually because each game line has one and only one pitcher who starts.

KCA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 0.55 Kevin_McCarthy_KCA PITCH
XXXXX 0.40 Wily_Peralta_KCA PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Brian_Flynn_KCA PITCH
XXXXX -0.32 Glenn_Sparkman_KCA PITCH
XXXXX -0.78 Tim_Hill_KCA PITCH
XXXXX -0.80 Jason_Adam_KCA PITCH
-050- -2.39 Brandon_Maurer_KCA PITCH
-003- -4.54 Jason_Hammel_KCA PITCH
Total -7.65

Hello Jason Hammel!  Cubs will probably see a lot of these guys the next few days.

KCA Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_5_2:10_PM
-2.18 Whit_Merrifield_KCA 2B-CF 465
-2.81 Alex_Gordon_KCA LF-CF 354
0.50 Salvador_Perez_KCA CR-DH 369
0.04 Lucas_Duda_KCA 1B-DH 268
-0.94 Rosell_Herrera_TOT RF-CF 150
0.21 Brett_Phillips_TOT BAT 44
-0.57 Jorge_Bonifacio_KCA RF 104
0.13 Ryan_O’Hearn_KCA BAT 16
-3.55 Alcides_Escobar_KCA SS 397
TOTAL WAA=-9.18 PA=2167 WinPct=0.419

This lineup reflects their worst in MLB hitting.  Whit_Merrifield above is ranked #39 according to his WAR=+3.7,    Anthony Rizzo is up to WAR=+1.2 BTW.

That is all for now.  There will be another part to the Ouija Board series to explain how the simulations work soon.   Until then ….