Cubs Nationals Matchup

This is a bit late since the Cubs already won the first game 3-2.  Let’s dump the matchup analysis for Washington.

WAS Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
14.4 38.9 527 460 59 56 13.6 0.1 WAS

Very good PITCH and decent above water BAT and at 59-56 the Nationals are +3 in the win/loss columns.  Their UR is excellent and top of MLB.  Only HOU and BOS are higher and both of them are playoff bound.  Washington has been struggling compared to last season.  Let’s see what the people have to say about the first game.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_10_2:20_PM WAS CHN

LINEAWAY WAS [ 0.424 ] < 0.442 > +126 $226
STARTAWAY 1.09(0.563) Jeremy_Hellickson_WAS TIER 3
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.593 ] < 0.576 > -136 $173
STARTHOME 0.21(0.507) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
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WAS 59 56 CHN 66 48
DELTAWAA 15 WINPCT 0.599 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
WAS Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.450 WAS 4.30 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> WAS Starter 3 / Relief 4 == 0.550 CHN 4.83 runs
--------------------------------------------
EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV WAS 91 CHN 104
TCsim EV WAS 102 CHN 95

Since we’re from the future we know the Cubs win this 3-2.  The market pretty much agrees with the simulations and deltaWAA so both lines a complete discard.  If, however, we could go back in time the CHN line would be a clear betting opportunity even with the premium paid for being favored.  The expected value for CHN when we are 100% sure of the outcome  is 1.00 * $173 = $173.   There are probably better ways to utilize a time machine than bet baseball however.

WAS Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 WAS 2.21
SP 3 Gio_Gonzalez_WAS 0.82
SP 3 Jeremy_Hellickson_WAS 1.09
SP 3 Tommy_Milone_WAS -0.57
SP 3 Tanner_Roark_WAS -0.15
SP 1 Max_Scherzer_WAS 7.10
RP 4 WAS -0.06

National lineup is Tier 3 and relief is Tier 4 and most of their starting rotation is Tier 3 except for Scherzer.  The above for pitching seems kind of low compared to their PITCH calculated from seasonal run differential above so maybe there are injuries.  The above is based upon current roster — according to our roster source which is mostly correct.  Let’s see the relievers the Cubs will face in this series.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+188+ 1.43 Matt_Grace_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.57 Wander_Suero_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.48 Justin_Miller_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -0.25 Ryan_Madson_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -0.27 Sammy_Solis_WAS PITCH
-077- -2.02 Greg_Holland_TOT PITCH
Total -0.06

League average relief is now +2.84 and the Tier 4 border is -0.06.  It looks like they picked up Greg Holland from the Cardinals who is having a career worst year.  WAS is gambling Holland performs to his career numbers:

Greg Holland Career

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2010 -1.2 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH XXXXX
2011 3.0 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH +090+
2012 1.6 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH XXXXX
2013 4.2 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH +043+
2014 3.3 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH +070+
2015 0.1 Greg_Holland_KCA PITCH XXXXX
2017 1.0 Greg_Holland_COL PITCH XXXXX
2018 -2.2 Greg_Holland_SLN PITCH -077-
2018 0.2 Greg_Holland_WAS PITCH -077-
Total 10.0

That’s a pretty decent career and what does WAS have to lose?  Eeking into a WC spot will be difficult at +3 at this point in the season with all the NL teams ahead of them.  Holland can’t carry this team on his shoulders alone but if they make a run he could be the piece that puts them over the edge.  Acquiring baseball players is gambling as much as playing the sports book in Vegas.  The more you understand your risk the better your odds of success.

WAS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_10_2:20_PM
0.36 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF-LF 210
0.04 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 514
2.12 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 396
3.36 Bryce_Harper_WAS RF-CF 490
2.48 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 293
0.15 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 170
-0.15 Daniel_Murphy_WAS 2B-1B 165
-0.63 Spencer_Kieboom_WAS CR 84
-0.59 Jeremy_Hellickson_WAS PR 29
TOTAL WAA=7.14 PA=2351 WinPct=0.558

Bold blue above are in the top 100.  Decent lineup.  The average lineup is now +3.40 and the Tier 2 border is at +7.40 so they’re close at +7.14.  The simulations use differences and not dependent on hard borders.  Since they’re so close to Tier 2 for all intents and purposes they get calculated as such.  More explanation on this later.

That is all for now.  Will probably start working on minors this weekend.  The scripts used to compile this data are a year old and nothing ever seems to work right.  My main interest is in teams like the White Sox who banked their future the last two seasons on minor league acquisitions.  These players should show up in either AAA, AA, and A+ by now.  Until then ….