Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs start a short two game series with the Brewers today. Let’s look at the Brewers to get an idea what the Cubs are up against.

MIL Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.9 38.2 284 242 39 26 2.4 2.2 MIL 6/11/2018
-0.6 20.8 533 507 67 54 1.6 4.2 MIL 8/14/2018

The Brewers were +13 two months ago and they’re +13 today.  Their BAT remained the same but PITCH tanked a little.  Their PE estimate suggests they should be at around +6 so they are exceeding expectations with respect to run differential.  The MLB commissioner however only looks at the win/loss column when determining who goes to the playoffs.  Let’s hear what the people think of these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_14_2:20_PM MIL CHN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.455 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 0.59(0.519) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 3
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LINEHOME CHN [ 0.583 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME -0.29(0.489) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3
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MIL 67 54 CHN 68 49
DELTAWAA 6 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.495 MIL 4.67 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.505 CHN 4.73 runs
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EXPECTED VALUE
deltaWAA EV MIL 105 CHN 93
TCsim EV MIL 114 CHN 86

The Tier Combo simulations call this an almost even steven game.  The market favors the Cubs with a 58.3% break even probability of winning today.   Expected Value based upon Tier combo simulations give MIL 114 which is well above 100 but below our 120 threshold.  Both lines a discard.  Let’s look at the Tier breakdown for MIL.

MIL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 MIL 8.32
SP 3 Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.38
SP 3 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 0.59
SP 2 Junior_Guerra_MIL 1.97
SP 3 Wade_Miley_MIL 1.74
SP 3 Freddy_Peralta_MIL -0.50
RP 2 MIL 6.07

That’s a pretty mediocre starting rotation.  They have a Tier 2 above average relief staff (RP) however.  Lineup is also Tier 2 which exceeds what would be expected from their completely league average BAT in team status.  Team status is based upon seasonal run differential and as the season progresses, negative players go and positive players are acquired — especially for teams in the hunt for a playoff spot.  Below are the relievers Cubs will face according to our source for current rosters.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+034+ 3.63 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+037+ 3.46 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.11 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.46 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.08 Corbin_Burnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.63 Jordan_Lyles_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.69 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
-185- -1.24 Aaron_Wilkerson_MIL PITCH
Total 6.18

Note:  There is a difference in total value between this table and the Tier Data table.  This is due Jordan Lyles whose TOT value is an estimate — but it’s very close.   The sims use the Tier Data table.

Now let’s look at that Tier 2 lineup Cubs pitching will face.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_12_1:35_PM
-0.92 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 439
3.97 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 454
5.29 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 393
1.51 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 313
-0.50 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-RF-3B-LF-SS 257
1.07 Mike_Moustakas_TOT 3B-DH 470
-0.15 Jonathan_Schoop_TOT 2B 402
-1.16 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 266
-0.80 Chase_Anderson_MIL PR 38
TOTAL WAA=8.32 PA=3032 WinPct=0.553

According to this data model Jesus Aguilar is right behind Javier Baez for NL MVP.   Again, past results do not affect future results.  These numbers only show capability to estimate a probability.  Anyone who thinks their math can predict the future is peddling in Astrology — a field many people believe is true.

That is all for now.  Game starts in 7 minutes … Go Cubs.