Cubs Pirates Matchup Part 4

Cubs play the Pirates again.  Lets look at the team the Cubs have to face these next 4 games.

PIT Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
21.6 -1.0 249 228 28 24 0.5 -0.0 PIT 5/28/2018
19.2 -12.9 289 284 31 31 -0.7 -0.5 PIT 6/8/2018
15.1 -7.1 484 480 55 52 -2.4 -1.6 PIT 7/31/2018
14.7 -4.3 550 549 61 60 -7.0 -2.4 PIT 8/16/2-18

This is what they call a 0.500 team, even steven, completely average.  Since the Cubs played PIT two weeks ago they went 6-8 losing two games.  BAT flat, PITCH a tiny bit down but UR way down which probably accounts for their two game loss.  Let’s hear what the people think about the first of this four game series.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_16_7:05_PM CHN PIT

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.505 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTAWAY 0.88(0.530) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME PIT [ 0.519 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTHOME -0.65(0.476) Ivan_Nova_PIT TIER 3

deltaWAA
——————–
TeamID W L WAA WinPct
CHN 69 50 19 0.616
PIT 61 60 1 0.384

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> PIT Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.520 CHN 4.67 runs
PIT Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.480 PIT 4.45 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
—————————
TeamID TCsim EV deltaWAA EV
CHN 97 115
PIT 98 79

Still experimenting with the format and color of the above report.  Cubs are favored with a break even probability of 0.535.  The Tier Combo simulations favor the Cubs at 0.520 and deltaWAA gives the Cubs a 0.616 advantage today.  Lester dropped to average starter status from being in MLB top ten earlier in the season.   Nova has maintained his average status all season now.

By looking at the Expected Value table you can see both CHN and PIT lines are below 100 based upon Tier Combo simulations.  Since win percentage from TC simulations are so close to the actual lines they fall inside the spread that represents the house’s guaranteed profit on every bet.  Thus, both lines a clear discard.

EV for deltaWAA is high for the Cubs but that’s based on seasonal win/loss record.  Tier Combo simulations are based upon the value of who is playing tonight which evolves for every team as the season progresses.  Another status report on the Cubs will be in a few days which will provide more detail as to why these two teams are more closely matched  than their win differentials would suggest.

PIT Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 PIT 7.62
SP 4 Chris_Archer_PIT -0.78
SP 3 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 1.32
SP 3 Ivan_Nova_PIT -0.65
SP 3 Jameson_Taillon_PIT 1.72
SP 3 Trevor_Williams_PIT 1.53
RP 2 PIT 5.94

They almost have a Tier 2 lineup at 7.62 and they have decent relief pitching which is also around the Tier 2/3 border.  Simulations use deltas between lineups/starters and lineup/relief pairs.  More on this later.  Starting rotation pretty mediocre — much like the Cubs are now.  Looks like Chris Archer is having a bad year.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+125+ 1.95 Kyle_Crick_PIT PITCH
+153+ 1.74 Edgar_Santana_PIT PITCH
+195+ 1.43 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 1.09 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 0.99 Keone_Kela_TOT PITCH
-180- -1.26 Michael_Feliz_PIT PITCH
Total 5.94

Three relievers in top 200 but no one who stands out.  Here is their lineup for tonight.

PIT Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_16_7:05_PM
0.38 Corey_Dickerson_PIT LF 410
1.95 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 441
3.13 Gregory_Polanco_PIT RF 449
1.62 David_Freese_PIT 3B-1B 237
0.61 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 231
1.32 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 436
-0.32 Josh_Harrison_PIT 2B 322
-0.06 Adeiny_Hechavarria_TOT SS 250
-1.01 Ivan_Nova_PIT PR 46
Total WAA=7.62 PA=2822 WinPct=0.552

That’s an above average pretty good lineup.  Hopefully Lester and Cubs relief knock them down a few notches tonight.

That is all.  Minor League status coming very soon.  Part 1 will start with AA, then A+, and finally AAA.  Until then ….