Cubs Status 8/18/2018

We haven’t looked at Cubs status in awhile.  Let’s look at their team status as of today and where it was ten days ago.

CHN Team Status

58.6 39.7 565 460 66 47 5.0 1.7 CHN 8/8/2018
38.7 44.9 586 494 71 50 7.0 1.3 CHN 8/18/2018

Cubs went 5-3 gaining two games putting them at +21 for the season.  This gives them either 91 or 92 wins at the end of the season if they play completely average.  BAT down quite a bit and PITCH up a bit and UR also up again.  A good Unearned Runs above average (UR) means  good fielding fundamentals.  Cubs were in negative territory at the beginning of the season.

They currently hold a non WC spot in the playoffs and as long as they focus on winning games there is no need to worry about other teams in the race.  In a couple weeks we’ll start posting playoff horse race based on this data model like last year.

Nothing to complain about … or is there?  Let’s drill down into this team like what is done for opponents in matchup posts.

Top Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+010+ 6.03 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B
+053+ 3.09 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.99 Cole_Hamels_CHN PITCH
+133+ 1.93 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+140+ 1.87 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
+142+ 1.85 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-LF-RF
+146+ 1.81 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+148+ 1.78 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+185+ 1.53 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
+197+ 1.43 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.24 Mike_Montgomery_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.07 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B

Lots of guys in the top 200  but only two now in the top 100.  As can be seen from team status reports, Cubs hitting has been down these last ten days. Baez is now ranked #10 from #7 which is still extremely good.  Even though, technically he leads in NL MVP according to this data model, he doesn’t have the commanding lead he once had.  It really doesn’t matter.  I’m sure he would prefer being World Series MVP instead.

The above shows Cole Hamels unranked with a WAA=1.99.  That represents value since he came to the Cubs which is phenomenal for a little over a month.  I still don’t understand what Texas received that would make them want to make this trade.  The above sorts on CHN records only so Hamels’ negative TEX value isn’t counted.  It is for ranking and tiering purposes however as shown below.

Rizzo has been slumping and Lester has been all over the place in these rankings the last bunch of weeks.  <anti jinx on> Lester is usually gold in playoff season which is all that matters. </>.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 CHN 12.24
SP 3 Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.42
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 0.17
SP 3 Jon_Lester_CHN 1.43
SP 4 Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.90
SP 3 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 1.24
RP 2 CHN 7.33

Tier 2 Lineup and Relief staff (RP).  The league average lineup has been rising fast as of late.  Right now the average team lineup is +4.53 and the tier 1 border is at +13.5.  Teams must be shedding high negative players for new guys who always start out a WAA=0.  This means teams can improve just by getting rid of certain players.

Starting rotation is pretty average and they don’t have a top notch relief staff to back it up.  This may be a problem in the playoffs which we’ll see in the playoff horse race chart in a couple weeks.  But, as always, past results don’t affect future results and all those pitchers above have very high capability based upon their career numbers — even their 3 year splits.  It’s not all gloom and doom and there’s not much the Cubs can do about it now anyway.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+053+ 3.09 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+146+ 1.81 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+161+ 1.70 Jesse_Chavez_TOT PITCH
+185+ 1.53 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.01 Justin_Wilson_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.57 Brandon_Kintzler_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.21 Jorge_De_La_Rosa_TOT PITCH
-075- -2.10 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN PITCH
Total 7.33

Here is a detailed breakdown of that Tier 2 relief staff.  League average relief is now at +2.91 and the Tier 1 border is at +8.36.

Blast From the Past

20.5 40.5 588 535 64 57 -8.5 0.7 CHN  8/18/2018

Here is where the Cubs were last year on this day.  Only +7 for the season with worse BAT and PITCH than what they have today.  Their UR last season was terrible compared to today.  Last year the Cubs had to dig out from being -2 at All Star Break.   The above proves there is nothing to complain about this season.

That is all.  Minor league AA almost completed.  Might cross reference the top 100 prospects from whoever makes these kinds of lists since I don’t know any of the names in the tables  this data model  produced.  We’ll see.  Spoiler Alert: White Sox have improved at AA level.  A+ will follow and then AAA.  Until then ….