Cubs Tigers Matchup

Cubs start a tiny two game series against the AL Tigers tonight in Detroit.  Let’s take a look at who the Cubs are up against.

DET Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-72.2 -32.7 484 589 51 74 -2.4 1.1 DET

At 51-74 the Tigers have a real WAA=-23.  Both BAT and PITCH awful which should be expected for a team this far underwater.  Their BAT is third worst in MLB.  Here’s what the people have to say about today.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_21_7:10_PM CHN DET

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.630 ] < 0.667 > -200 $150
STARTAWAY 0.17(0.505) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME DET [ 0.385 ] < 0.357 > +180 $280
STARTHOME -0.34(0.483) Jordan_Zimmermann_DET TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 42 WINPCT 0.664 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> DET Starter 3 / Relief 4 == 0.588 CHN 4.79 runs
DET Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.412 DET 3.88 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 88 100
DET 115 94

Cubs bettors risk $100 to win $50 meaning their break even probability is 2/3 or 0.667.  This almost exactly matches the probability based upon differences in wins and losses between the two teams (deltaWAA).  Tier Combos only give the Cubs a 0.588 chance today which is why the Tigers have an Expected Value of 115 based upon this.  That is below our 120 threshold and deltaWAA would wave this off anyway.  Both lines a clear discard.

DET Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 DET -8.78
SP 3 Matthew_Boyd_DET -0.19
SP 3 Ryan_Carpenter_DET -0.76
SP 3 Buck_Farmer_DET -0.36
SP 4 Francisco_Liriano_DET -1.16
SP 3 Jordan_Zimmermann_DET -0.34
RP 4 DET -0.53

Above are the Tier breakdowns used for simulation.  Tigers field a Tier 5, worst in MLB lineup and a Tier 4 below average relief staff (RP).  Their starting rotation is pretty average.

DET Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+190+ 1.53 Victor_Alcantara_DET PITCH
XXXXX 0.69 Joe_Jimenez_DET PITCH
XXXXX 0.61 Louis_Coleman_DET PITCH
XXXXX 0.42 Shane_Greene_DET PITCH
XXXXX 0.19 Alex_Wilson_DET PITCH
XXXXX -1.03 Zac_Reininger_DET PITCH
-157- -1.43 Drew_VerHagen_DET PITCH
-141- -1.51 Daniel_Stumpf_DET PITCH
Total -0.53

League average relief is now 3.12 and the Tier 5 border is -2.33.

DET Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_19_2:10_PM
-0.38 Jeimer_Candelario_DET 3B 456
-1.45 Jose_Iglesias_DET SS 431
1.68 Nick_Castellanos_DET RF 509
-0.65 Niko_Goodrum_DET 2B-1B 373
-3.21 Victor_Martinez_DET DH 409
-0.21 Jim_Adduci_DET 1B 81
-1.43 Mikie_Mahtook_DET LF 131
-2.56 James_McCann_DET CR 357
-0.57 Mike_Gerber_DET BAT 40
Total WAA=-8.78 PA=2787 WinPct=0.440

That’s a pretty bad lineup which should be expected from team status.  We’re using their last lineup, from 8/19, because current lineups for this game aren’t out yet.

That’s all for today.  Minor Leagues Part 2 covering A+ coming next.  And I hear on Twitter the Cubs made another “trade” past the trade deadline again.  We’ll look into that as well.  Until then ….