Cubs start a tiny two game series against the AL Tigers tonight in Detroit. Let’s take a look at who the Cubs are up against.
DET Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -72.2 | -32.7 | 484 | 589 | 51 | 74 | -2.4 | 1.1 | DET |
At 51-74 the Tigers have a real WAA=-23. Both BAT and PITCH awful which should be expected for a team this far underwater. Their BAT is third worst in MLB. Here’s what the people have to say about today.
Ouija Board
DATE 08_21_7:10_PM CHN DET
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.630 ] < 0.667 > -200 $150
STARTAWAY 0.17(0.505) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
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LINEHOME DET [ 0.385 ] < 0.357 > +180 $280
STARTHOME -0.34(0.483) Jordan_Zimmermann_DET TIER 3
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 42 WINPCT 0.664 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> DET Starter 3 / Relief 4 == 0.588 CHN 4.79 runs
DET Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.412 DET 3.88 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 88 100
DET 115 94
Cubs bettors risk $100 to win $50 meaning their break even probability is 2/3 or 0.667. This almost exactly matches the probability based upon differences in wins and losses between the two teams (deltaWAA). Tier Combos only give the Cubs a 0.588 chance today which is why the Tigers have an Expected Value of 115 based upon this. That is below our 120 threshold and deltaWAA would wave this off anyway. Both lines a clear discard.
DET Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 5 | DET | -8.78 | |
| SP | 3 | Matthew_Boyd_DET | -0.19 | |
| SP | 3 | Ryan_Carpenter_DET | -0.76 | |
| SP | 3 | Buck_Farmer_DET | -0.36 | |
| SP | 4 | Francisco_Liriano_DET | -1.16 | |
| SP | 3 | Jordan_Zimmermann_DET | -0.34 | |
| RP | 4 | DET | -0.53 |
Above are the Tier breakdowns used for simulation. Tigers field a Tier 5, worst in MLB lineup and a Tier 4 below average relief staff (RP). Their starting rotation is pretty average.
DET Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +190+ | 1.53 | Victor_Alcantara_DET | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Joe_Jimenez_DET | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.61 | Louis_Coleman_DET | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Shane_Greene_DET | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.19 | Alex_Wilson_DET | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.03 | Zac_Reininger_DET | PITCH | |
| -157- | -1.43 | Drew_VerHagen_DET | PITCH | |
| -141- | -1.51 | Daniel_Stumpf_DET | PITCH | |
| Total | -0.53 |
League average relief is now 3.12 and the Tier 5 border is -2.33.
DET Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Aug_19_2:10_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.38 | Jeimer_Candelario_DET | 3B | 456 | |
| -1.45 | Jose_Iglesias_DET | SS | 431 | |
| 1.68 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | RF | 509 | |
| -0.65 | Niko_Goodrum_DET | 2B-1B | 373 | |
| -3.21 | Victor_Martinez_DET | DH | 409 | |
| -0.21 | Jim_Adduci_DET | 1B | 81 | |
| -1.43 | Mikie_Mahtook_DET | LF | 131 | |
| -2.56 | James_McCann_DET | CR | 357 | |
| -0.57 | Mike_Gerber_DET | BAT | 40 | |
| Total | WAA=-8.78 | PA=2787 | WinPct=0.440 |
That’s a pretty bad lineup which should be expected from team status. We’re using their last lineup, from 8/19, because current lineups for this game aren’t out yet.
That’s all for today. Minor Leagues Part 2 covering A+ coming next. And I hear on Twitter the Cubs made another “trade” past the trade deadline again. We’ll look into that as well. Until then ….