Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs play the Reds once again.  Here is current teams status for CIN and the last two times Cubs played them.

CIN Team Status

-3.9 -52.0 315 376 28 45 0.1 -1.2 CIN 6/21/2018
28.1 -48.1 407 440 38 49 -7.5 -1.5 CIN 7/6/2018
10.0 -67.9 575 642 56 71 -8.5 -0.6 CIN 8/23/2018

Cubs last faced CIN around the beginning of July.   Since they had such good hitting at the time and a Tier 1 relief staff it was deemed possible they could make a run for a WC spot.   Often those can be had for a slightly above average win loss record.  Since then their BAT and PITCH tanked and now they’re -15, completely out of it.  UR, a team fielding indicator,  still way below league average as well.   Let’s hear from the people as to what they think of this series.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_23_8:05_PM CIN CHN

LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.328 ] < 0.345 > +190 $290
STARTAWAY 0.10(0.506) Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN TIER 3
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.692 ] < 0.677 > -210 $147
STARTHOME 0.42(0.514) Cole_Hamels_TOT TIER 3


CIN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.452 CIN 4.12 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> CIN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.548 CHN 4.60 runs

CIN 131 102
CHN 81 95

Cubs heavily favored by more than 2-1 with Cole Hamels on the mound.  Hamels has career numbers much better than Tier 3 but his current value is what gets put into simulations resulting in Cubs favored only at 0.548.   Expected Value for CIN based upon Tier Combo simulations is rather high at 131.  Based upon deltaWAA, the difference in wins and losses, the EV drops to 102 making it around a break even bet.

Due to the fact that we know Hamels is a much better pitcher than his current year stats indicate means the deltaWAA EV is probably more accurate than simulations.  The relationship between deltaWAA and Tier Combos is still unknown and will be perhaps until next season.  The Cubs line is a clear discard however.

CIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 CIN 0.53
SP 5 Homer_Bailey_CIN -4.37
SP 5 Luis_Castillo_CIN -2.18
SP 3 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 0.08
SP 4 Matt_Harvey_CIN -2.06
SP 5 Sal_Romano_CIN -3.88
SP 4 Robert_Stephenson_CIN -0.86
RP 1 CIN 9.16

Homer Bailey demonstrates the perils of hiring a pitcher based upon who the media thinks is good.  This log book showed he had negative career value and limited upside capability when he was signed Feb 2014.   That’s all water under the bridge now and he’s currently pitching like Edwin Jackson.  Lineup dropped to Tier 3 and Relief is still top of MLB at Tier 1.  Let’s look at the relievers Cubs batters will face these next four games.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+034+ 3.80 Jared_Hughes_CIN PITCH
+079+ 2.56 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN PITCH
+109+ 2.14 David_Hernandez_CIN PITCH
+178+ 1.62 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.04 Amir_Garrett_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Cody_Reed_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.90 Wandy_Peralta_CIN PITCH
Total 9.16

Current Tier 1 boundary for relief staffs is +8.41.  They have two, almost three, relievers in top 100.   No relievers in negative territory which probably means new guys from their farm system.

CIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_22_2:10_PM
-1.03 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 427
-0.99 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 528
3.49 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 499
-0.69 Mason_Williams_CIN RF 65
0.63 Phil_Ervin_CIN RF-LF 125
-1.28 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 411
0.17 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 91
0.25 Dilson_Herrera_CIN BAT 43
-0.02 Robert_Stephenson_CIN BAT 1
Total WAA=0.53 PA=2190 WinPct=0.505

League average lineup is now +3.94 so they are below average and close to dropping to Tier 4, below average. This lineup was Tier 1, top of MLB, last July.  Sometimes teams collapse when there’s no hope for the season.   Lack of starting pitching killed this team.

Update 8/25/2018: The above CIN lineup was missing a few players which drastically changes things.  This happened with CIN last season as well.  Here is their lineup for this afternoon.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_25_2:20_PM
1.30 Scott_Schebler_CIN RF-CF 299
-1.30 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 544
3.46 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 520
5.52 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 482
0.69 Phil_Ervin_CIN RF-LF 145
-1.60 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 431
0.04 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 97
0.06 Dilson_Herrera_CIN BAT 56
-0.65 Luis_Castillo_CIN PR 50
Total WAA=7.54 PA=2624 WinPct=0.555

This is a much better lineup than the one grabbed at the beginning of this series which had Suarez missing.  The Tier 2 border for lineups is now +8.58.   Cubs lineup is +9.70 today which is considered Tier 2.  The simulations don’t use hard boundaries however.  Both CIN and CHN are almost equivalent on relief and lineup.  The main difference in today’s game is starting pitching — which has been the Reds Achilles heel this season.  </end of update>

That is all for now.  Part 3 of Minor Leagues covering AAA next up and we’re getting close to playoff horse race tables again.  Until then ….