Minor Leagues Part 3: AAA

This will be the last minor league covered.  AAA consists of two leagues; Pacific Coast League (pcl) and International (int).  More about these leagues can be read here.  Like MLB, this model combines all 30 franchise affiliates from both leagues into one bowl of data soup.  Let’s start with the Cubs affiliate.

Iowa Cubs Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
7.9 -59.4 556 610 55 59 -0.3 -2.0 Iowa_Cubs_CHN  8/10/2017
-99.8 -10.1 478 592 46 79 0.4 -4.5 Iowa_Cubs_CHN  8/22/2018

The above shows team status for last year’s last snapshot and the one taken today.  A year ago the Cubs were almost 0.500, just 4 games under.  Today they’re -33.  BAT tanked but PITCH actually improved even though it’s still underwater as well.

Top Iowa Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+081+ 2.50 Kyle_Ryan_CHN PITCH 0.696
+142+ 1.89 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH 0.875
+163+ 1.74 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.787
+169+ 1.70 Dillon_Maples_CHN PITCH 0.705
XXXXX 1.45 Anthony_Bass_CHN PITCH 0.713
XXXXX 1.24 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.842
XXXXX 1.13 Ryan_Court_CHN BAT 0.555
XXXXX 1.13 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.582
XXXXX 0.92 Michael_Roth_CHN PITCH 0.639
XXXXX 0.82 Mike_Freeman_CHN BAT 0.557
XXXXX 0.82 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.580

Kyle Ryan has been in MLB since 2014 and came to the Cubs from Detroit.  He pitched well for the Iowa Cubs this season with a rather high Win% rate.   Names in blue have played for the MLB Cubs and we saw Jason Vosler last season  and with the Smokies this season.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+043+ 2.90 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.625 aa 2017
XXXXX 0.92 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.603 aa 2018
XXXXX 0.82 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.580 aaa 2018

Not bad.  Maybe we’ll see him in September call ups.

Charlette Knights  Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-61.6 -44.6 489 611 46 70 -16.3 0.5 Charlotte_Knights_CHA  8/10/2017
-111.3 21.0 472 553 57 68 8.4 1.0 Charlotte_Knights_CHA  8/22/2018

Since last season BAT tanked while PITCH improved and their W-L record went from -14 to -11, almost the same.  UR way up.   The White Sox had quite the fire sale last season so it is not expected for that talent to percolate up to AAA.  That this team has improved somewhat  means their deals from two years ago may be paying dividends.  We’ll drill down into individual players below.

The above shows the Knights had a dismal UR, a team indicator for fielding as a team, last season which has dramatically improved this season.  The current MLB White Sox have the worst UR amongst all 30 MLB teams at -23.0.  The second worst in MLB is PHI with -12.0 .  It will be interesting to see if the above improvement shows up in the MLB White Sox a year from now when we do this again.  Let’s look at the top players that make up the Knights.

Top Charlette Knights

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 3.61 Donn_Roach_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.17 Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+104+ 2.10 Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Danish_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+147+ 1.85 Tyler_Danish_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.76 Spencer_Adams_CHA PITCH aa 2018
+156+ 1.78 Spencer_Adams_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
-015- -3.55 Dylan_Covey_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+157+ 1.76 Dylan_Covey_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.19 Michael_Kopech_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+172+ 1.70 Michael_Kopech_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
-037- -2.96 Jordan_Guerrero_CHA PITCH aa 2018
+183+ 1.62 Jordan_Guerrero_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.55 Xavier_Cedeno_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 1.53 Xavier_Cedeno_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
+198+ 1.39 Ian_Hamilton_CHA PITCH aa 2018
XXXXX 1.18 Ian_Hamilton_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
+059+ 3.02 Carlos_Rodon_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 0.84 Carlos_Rodon_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.42 Aaron_Bummer_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 0.78 Aaron_Bummer_CHA PITCH aaa 2018

Since this is AAA, the top level minor league, players move around a lot.  The above table lists the top Knights according to their AAA value and also shows their value and rank records from other leagues they played for this season.

First thing to notice is all their top players are pitchers — which should be expected with such a high negative BAT in team status.  This means the White Sox’ hopes for next season will rely on some of the above to be able to pitch at MLB level.

The top two guys colored in green are pitching very well at the AAA level but they have been in and out of MLB over the years.  Click on Donn Roach and Jeanmar Gomez to see their career stats from baseball-reference.com.  Donn Roach even pitched in a game for the Cubs and Gomez has been around MLB since 2010 so technically he’s a veteran.

The blue colored names are mlb records.  Interesting that Jordan Guerrero tanked in AA and was promoted to AAA and has pitched well.  There is much more going on in minors than this data model can see.  This model is only a reflection upon past performance.  With September call ups around the corner we may see many of these names on CHA MLB roster soon.  Also, this guy was left out.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos  Win%
+037+ 1.95 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.807 aplus 2017
+037+ 1.74 Eloy_Jimenez_CHN BAT 0.692 aplus 2017
+051+ 2.58 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.717 aa 2018
XXXXX 0.53 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.557 aaa 2018

The above show our snapshot from last season as well.  This model does not compile A level however.   His win% rate shows he excelled in A+ and AA.  He might have started at A level in 2017.  He might be on the MLB team in September and most likely sometime next season depending upon how the White Sox are handling him.

Top AAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+001+ 6.28 Tyler_O’Neill_SLN BAT 0.942
+002+ 5.92 Christian_Walker_ARI BAT 0.834
+003+ 5.90 Mike_Tauchman_COL BAT 0.770
+004+ 5.90 Kevin_Cron_ARI BAT 0.794
+005+ 5.86 Jabari_Blash_ANA BAT 0.858
+006+ 5.59 Kyle_Tucker_HOU BAT 0.762
+007+ 5.46 AJ_Reed_HOU BAT 0.713
+008+ 5.35 Cole_Irvin_PHI PITCH 0.661
+009+ 5.33 J.D._Davis_HOU BAT 0.813
+010+ 5.25 Zach_Borenstein_NYN BAT 0.693
+011+ 5.02 Adam_Plutko_CLE PITCH 0.767
+012+ 4.89 Socrates_Brito_ARI BAT 0.713
+013+ 4.60 Franmil_Reyes_SDN BAT 0.853
+014+ 4.58 Enyel_De_Los_Santos_PHI PITCH 0.678
+015+ 4.56 Ryan_Weber_TBA PITCH 0.698
+016+ 4.45 Josh_Fuentes_COL BAT 0.659
+017+ 4.45 Dakota_Hudson_SLN PITCH 0.679
+018+ 4.41 Daniel_Poncedeleon_SLN PITCH 0.716
+019+ 4.28 Brett_Nicholas_SDN BAT 0.699
+020+ 4.18 Peter_Alonso_NYN BAT 0.822
+021+ 4.16 Trevor_Oaks_KCA PITCH 0.658
+022+ 3.99 Kolby_Allard_ATL PITCH 0.664
+023+ 3.88 Jordan_Patterson_COL BAT 0.672
+024+ 3.88 Tyler_White_HOU BAT 0.738
+025+ 3.86 Robert_Stephenson_CIN PITCH 0.654

The above is a name dump based upon  WAA weighting which is the only appropriate way to rank.  Not familiar with any of the above names except Robert Stephenson who, IIRC, pitched against the Cubs this season.  Many of the above could be professional minor league players who can dominate AAA but can’t make it in MLB.

That is all for now and perhaps minor leagues for this season.  A playoff horse race compilation needs to be made before roster expansion and that’s in a few days.  Until then ….