Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs start a three game series with the Mets tonight in Wrigley Field.  Let’s take a look at this Mets team.

NYN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-39.0 -13.2 541 591 58 72 3.8 -1.6 NYN

At 58-72 Mets are -14 for the season and out of the playoffs.  Hitting is terrible and pitching a little underwater.  Let’s see what the markets have to say about these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_27_8:05_PM NYN CHN

LINEAWAY NYN [ 0.444 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 1.93(0.581) Noah_Syndergaard_NYN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.574 ] < 0.592 > -145 $168
STARTHOME 1.74(0.554) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 37 WINPCT 0.676 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
NYN Lineup 4 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.444 NYN 3.88 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> NYN Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.556 CHN 4.46 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TCsim  dWAA
NYN    102    81
CHN    93     109

Cubs are favored by the markets with an almost 60% break even probability.  The difference between these two teams based upon seasonal wins and losses (deltaWAA) gives the Cubs almost 68% chance of winning which is why Expected Value for CHN dWAA is +109.  Bets are not recommended based upon seasonal wins and losses however.  TCsim Expected Values on a $100 risk for both teams hover around 100 making each line a complete discard today.

Tier Combo simulations favor the Cubs at 55.6% mainly because Jon Lester has had a bad run as of late and dropped down to Tier 3 average status.  He’s facing Noah Syndergaard who is at Tier 2.  The difference in their WAA values is negligible so the simulations will treat these two as virtual equals even though each fall on a different side of the Tier 2/3 boundary.

Cubs fielding a Tier 1 RP again by putting Tyler Chatwood on DL.  Hopefully he pitches well next season.

NYN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 4 NYN -4.05
SP 1 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 9.93
SP 3 Steven_Matz_NYN -0.61
SP 2 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN 1.93
SP 5 Jason_Vargas_NYN -4.24
SP 2 Zack_Wheeler_NYN 2.46
RP 3 NYN 1.15

This model has deGrom as the #1 ranked player in MLB so far.  That’s not a bad starting rotation considering their underwater PITCH in team status.   Lineup is Tier 4 below average which should be expected.  The Tier 4/5 boundary is now at -4.77 so they’re close.

NYN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+082+ 2.54 Seth_Lugo_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Robert_Gsellman_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.80 Drew_Smith_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.57 Jerry_Blevins_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.32 Daniel_Zamora_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -0.44 Tyler_Bashlor_NYN PITCH
-138- -1.64 Paul_Sewald_NYN PITCH
-095- -1.95 Corey_Oswalt_NYN PITCH
Total 1.17

League average for relief squads is now at +3.43.  They have one guy in the top 100.

NYN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_26_1:10_PM
-0.73 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 449
-0.06 Jeff_McNeil_NYN 2B 112
-0.34 Michael_Conforto_NYN CF-LF 489
0.97 Todd_Frazier_NYN 3B 348
-1.89 Jay_Bruce_NYN RF 240
-1.36 Austin_Jackson_TOT CF 270
0.65 Jose_Bautista_TOT RF-3B-LF 331
-0.42 Tomas_Nido_NYN CR 48
-0.86 Steven_Matz_NYN PR 40
Total WAA=-4.05 PA=2327 WinPct=0.467

This is the lineup for NYN yesterday since tonight’s lineups won’t be available until much later today.  That’s another underwater lineup Cubs pitching will face.  Hopefully they don’t have an epiphany and decide to start hitting these next three days.

That is all for now.  Cubs status coming as well as an interesting playoff horse race table ranking  playoff contenders by the value derive by this data model.  I was a little surprised by the results.  Also there will be a Part 4 to the minor league series showing where last year’s top 25 in AA ended up this year and where AAA top 25 for this year were at this time last year.  Until then ….