Cubs Braves Matchup Part 2

Apparently this game is merely a makeup.  Let’s quickly run through the current Braves team.

ATL Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
35.5 59.7 629 530 74 58 4.8 0.0 ATL

They are +16 in the wins/loss column which would give Cubs home field advantage should they meet in the playoffs.  BAT and PITCH balanced just like the Cubs although near the end of season current roster value usually deviates from seasonal run differential.  Let’s hear from the people.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_30_7:35_PM CHN ATL

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.455 ] < 0.463 > +116 $216
STARTAWAY 1.18(0.553) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.565 ] < 0.558 > -126 $179
STARTHOME 5.06(0.657) Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL TIER 1

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 8 WINPCT 0.565 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> ATL Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.450 CHN 3.96 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.550 ATL 4.45 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    97 122
ATL    98 78

The Cubs played Atlanta mid May with Foltynewicz pitching against Darvish.  Back then the market had Cubs favored by 55% and now Atlanta is favored by 55%.   The markets were cautious about the Braves after so many terrible seasons.  Tier Combo simulations weren’t complete back then but the number of runs showed Atlanta was favored — by how much was unknown.  Pretty soon  historical simulations will be complete.  I suspect the result  will be similar to TC simulation results above.

Foltynewicz turned into a top tier pitcher since then.  The Cubs fielded a weak lineup yesterday.  Usually they are around the 1/2 Tier border and suspect ATL is about the same.  If the simulations are run with an upgraded CHN lineup the gap should narrow but in no way would make either of these lines a betting opportunity.

The markets have wised up to Atlanta.  According to the playoff horse race table posted yesterday, CHN and ATL are virtually tied in team value.

ATL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 ATL 8.63
SP 1 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 5.06
SP 3 Kevin_Gausman_ATL 1.11
SP 3 Sean_Newcomb_ATL 1.07
SP 2 Anibal_Sanchez_ATL 2.69
SP 3 Julio_Teheran_ATL -0.06
RP 3 ATL 4.79

They have an average relief staff and based upon their lineup yesterday they’re at +8.63 which is close to the Tier 2/3 border.  Starting rotation about average playoff caliber.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+118+ 2.21 Jesse_Biddle_ATL PITCH
+129+ 2.10 Dan_Winkler_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 A.J._Minter_ATL PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Jonny_Venters_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.40 Brad_Brach_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Luke_Jackson_ATL PITCH
XXXXX -0.86 Sam_Freeman_ATL PITCH
-153- -1.53 Kolby_Allard_ATL PITCH
Total 4.75

Average Relief (RP) is now +2.83 so they’re a little above average.  Two guys in top 200, no reliever in top 100.

ATL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_29_7:35_PM
2.37 Ronald_Acuna_ATL LF-CF 341
-1.09 Ender_Inciarte_ATL CF 535
2.83 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 577
2.23 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 572
1.49 Johan_Camargo_ATL 3B-SS 409
2.37 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 557
-0.65 Tyler_Flowers_ATL CR 230
-0.21 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 441
-0.71 Sean_Newcomb_ATL PR 48
Total WAA=8.63 PA=3710 WinPct=0.545

Not bad.  Four guys (blue) in top 200, no one dragging the hitting down thus making them an above average lineup.  Cubs pitching faced below average lineups the last two series.

Cubs status might come out later today since it hasn’t been done in almost two weeks now.  Until then ….