Apparently this game is merely a makeup. Let’s quickly run through the current Braves team.
ATL Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.5 | 59.7 | 629 | 530 | 74 | 58 | 4.8 | 0.0 | ATL |
They are +16 in the wins/loss column which would give Cubs home field advantage should they meet in the playoffs. BAT and PITCH balanced just like the Cubs although near the end of season current roster value usually deviates from seasonal run differential. Let’s hear from the people.
Ouija Board
DATE 08_30_7:35_PM CHN ATL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.455 ] < 0.463 > +116 $216
STARTAWAY 1.18(0.553) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
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LINEHOME ATL [ 0.565 ] < 0.558 > -126 $179
STARTHOME 5.06(0.657) Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL TIER 1
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 8 WINPCT 0.565 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> ATL Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.450 CHN 3.96 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.550 ATL 4.45 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 97 122
ATL 98 78
The Cubs played Atlanta mid May with Foltynewicz pitching against Darvish. Back then the market had Cubs favored by 55% and now Atlanta is favored by 55%. The markets were cautious about the Braves after so many terrible seasons. Tier Combo simulations weren’t complete back then but the number of runs showed Atlanta was favored — by how much was unknown. Pretty soon historical simulations will be complete. I suspect the result will be similar to TC simulation results above.
Foltynewicz turned into a top tier pitcher since then. The Cubs fielded a weak lineup yesterday. Usually they are around the 1/2 Tier border and suspect ATL is about the same. If the simulations are run with an upgraded CHN lineup the gap should narrow but in no way would make either of these lines a betting opportunity.
The markets have wised up to Atlanta. According to the playoff horse race table posted yesterday, CHN and ATL are virtually tied in team value.
ATL Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 2 | ATL | 8.63 | |
| SP | 1 | Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL | 5.06 | |
| SP | 3 | Kevin_Gausman_ATL | 1.11 | |
| SP | 3 | Sean_Newcomb_ATL | 1.07 | |
| SP | 2 | Anibal_Sanchez_ATL | 2.69 | |
| SP | 3 | Julio_Teheran_ATL | -0.06 | |
| RP | 3 | ATL | 4.79 |
They have an average relief staff and based upon their lineup yesterday they’re at +8.63 which is close to the Tier 2/3 border. Starting rotation about average playoff caliber.
ATL Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +118+ | 2.21 | Jesse_Biddle_ATL | PITCH | |
| +129+ | 2.10 | Dan_Winkler_ATL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.28 | A.J._Minter_ATL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Jonny_Venters_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | Brad_Brach_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Luke_Jackson_ATL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Sam_Freeman_ATL | PITCH | |
| -153- | -1.53 | Kolby_Allard_ATL | PITCH | |
| Total | 4.75 |
Average Relief (RP) is now +2.83 so they’re a little above average. Two guys in top 200, no reliever in top 100.
ATL Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Aug_29_7:35_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.37 | Ronald_Acuna_ATL | LF-CF | 341 | |
| -1.09 | Ender_Inciarte_ATL | CF | 535 | |
| 2.83 | Freddie_Freeman_ATL | 1B | 577 | |
| 2.23 | Nick_Markakis_ATL | RF | 572 | |
| 1.49 | Johan_Camargo_ATL | 3B-SS | 409 | |
| 2.37 | Ozzie_Albies_ATL | 2B | 557 | |
| -0.65 | Tyler_Flowers_ATL | CR | 230 | |
| -0.21 | Dansby_Swanson_ATL | SS | 441 | |
| -0.71 | Sean_Newcomb_ATL | PR | 48 | |
| Total | WAA=8.63 | PA=3710 | WinPct=0.545 |
Not bad. Four guys (blue) in top 200, no one dragging the hitting down thus making them an above average lineup. Cubs pitching faced below average lineups the last two series.
Cubs status might come out later today since it hasn’t been done in almost two weeks now. Until then ….