Cubs Phillies Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Phillies tonight who are still in the hunt.  The Phillies are in contention for a playoff spot. Let’s take a look at this team.

PHI Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-15.5 34.9 578 575 71 62 -14.9 -2.6 PHI

Weak below average hitting, decent pitching overall based upon seasonal run differential.  Extremely bad Unearned Runs above average.  They are second worst in MLB behind the Chicago White Sox.  This means they lost many wins due to fielding errors.

Ouija Board

DATE 08_31_7:05_PM CHN PHI

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.535 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTAWAY -0.63(0.479) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME PHI [ 0.512 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTHOME -1.95(0.435) Nick_Pivetta_PHI TIER 4

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> PHI Starter 4 / Relief 3 == 0.546 CHN 4.90 runs
PHI Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.454 PHI 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    112 126
PHI    84  71

The lines are floating around even steven.  TC simulations favor the Cubs around 55%.  This deviation caused the Cubs’ Expected Value to be 112, still below our 120 threshold but close.  Sometimes exuberance shifts lines in favor of the home team.  WinPct based upon the difference in wins and losses favor the Cubs even more at around 62%.   Home field advantage is an entire subject matter that will need its own multi part series.

PHI Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 PHI 5.63
SP 2 Jake_Arrieta_PHI 2.14
SP 3 Zach_Eflin_PHI 0.44
SP 1 Aaron_Nola_PHI 8.50
SP 4 Nick_Pivetta_PHI -1.91
SP 3 Vince_Velasquez_PHI 0.36
RP 3 PHI 3.97

Jake Arrieta is having another consistent good (but not great) season.  Aaron Nola is ranked #1 in WAR and #4 here so everyone is in agreement he’s top top tier this year.  Other than that they don’t have other good starters.  Average is fine but not if your relief staff is also average — especially going up against a Tier 1 lineup like the Cubs and everyone in the playoffs they’ll play if they make it.

PHI Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+185+ 1.64 Victor_Arano_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 1.18 Seranthony_Dominguez_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 1.05 Pat_Neshek_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.46 Tommy_Hunter_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.34 Luis_Avilan_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.32 Luis_Garcia_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.08 Adam_Morgan_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -1.13 Hector_Neris_PHI PITCH
Total 3.94

Only one reliever barely in top 200 and this is an average relief staff.

PHI Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Aug_29_7:05_PM
0.08 Roman_Quinn_PHI BAT 62
3.91 Rhys_Hoskins_PHI LF 529
-1.13 Cesar_Hernandez_PHI 2B 581
1.70 Wilson_Ramos_TOT CR 345
1.36 Carlos_Santana_PHI 1B 551
0.40 Jose_Bautista_TOT RF-3B-LF 342
1.28 Maikel_Franco_PHI 3B 441
-1.41 Scott_Kingery_PHI SS-3B 413
-0.57 Jake_Arrieta_PHI PR 41
Total WAA=5.63 PA=3305 WinPct=0.533

League average lineup is +4.20 as of today so the above is pretty average.  Hoskins the only standout.

That’s all for today.  Minor leagues Part 4 coming soon and then September call ups, starting again in a few days unless the lines go haywire in this series.  Until then ….