Cubs face the Brewers in Milwaukee for a three game series today, Memorial Day. Cubs last played MIL beginning of June. Let’s look at the current Brewers team.
MIL Team Status
With a PITCH = +21.8 the Brewers are ranked exactly in the middle of the MLB pack at #15 in that category based upon seasonal run differential. Distributions can be funny sometimes. Their PITCH was much better two months into the season when the Cubs last played them. At +16 they’re leading contender for a wild card playoff spot. Seasonal numbers are interesting although current roster value matters more. Let’s hear what the people think of these two teams.
DATE 09_03_2:10_PM CHN MIL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.592 ] < 0.550 > -122 $181
STARTAWAY 1.64(0.548) Cole_Hamels_TOT TIER 3
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.444 ] < 0.472 > +112 $212
STARTHOME -1.13(0.381) Zach_Davies_MIL TIER 4
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 4 / Relief 2 == 0.545 CHN 4.77 runs
MIL Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.455 MIL 4.31 runs
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 99 105
MIL 96 89
Both lines a clear discard skipping down to the Expected Value table. The break even probabilities match Tier Combo simulations almost exactly. Cole Hamels has been a clear Tier 1 pitcher ever since coming to the Cubs. This would give the Cubs more of an edge but certainly not enough for them to become a betting opportunity.
This model does not take into account trends because 1) it’s too complicated violating the Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) philosophy behind this data model and 2) forecasting based on trends tends to veer into witchcraft or astrology. Forecasting trends is what keeps the hotels in Las Vegas filled with gamblers. The trend is your friend, don’t buck the trend I heard once upon a time from a Merryll Lynch broker. Let’s hope Hamels doesn’t buck his trend today.
The difference between home field advantage and home field exuberance is still unknown. DeltaWAA data shows no home field advantage for regular season. There might be/probably is for playoff season which for some teams starts the last two weeks of September. This will be examined more as we get closer to the playoffs.
MIL Tier Data
The MIL lineup used for this snapshot is their last lineup on 9/2/2018. Their normal lineup is Tier 1/2, about equal with Cubs, which means TC simulations would narrow in favor of MIL. The way this models handles day to day needs work in the off season. Zach Davies isn’t listed in the above because our source roster data lags sometimes. The above pitching goes from average to above average, not bad.
Lots and lots of relievers due to September call ups. Oh, there’s Zach Davies. Matt Albers had a good season with Washington last year. The top of this relief staff is pretty decent.
The above shows their Tier 1 lineup from 9/1/2018. The current snapshot used for simulation was from yesterday which was Tier 3. Their lineup which I just received is +8.00 which is Tier 3 now. More on some of the issues in how the simulation sausage is made coming soon. The Cubs may see the above lineup sometime these next couple of days.
Their lineup has two top 25 MLB players (bold blue) and two top 200 (blue). This adds up to a top tier lineup which is much better than their BAT in team status based upon seasonal run differential. Especially near the end of the season roster value can deviate significantly with run differential.
That is all for now. If lines go haywire another post will be made. There might be a where are they now Part 4 to the minor league season coming if I get motivated. Until then ….