Cubs Brewers Matchup Part 2

Cubs face the Brewers in Milwaukee for a three game series today, Memorial Day. Cubs last played MIL beginning of June. Let’s look at the current Brewers team.

MIL Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.9 38.2 284 242 39 26 2.4 2.2 MIL 6/11/2018
8.9 21.8 620 590 77 61 -2.8 2.1 MIL 9/3/2018

With a PITCH = +21.8 the Brewers are ranked exactly in the middle of the MLB pack at #15 in that category based upon seasonal run differential.  Distributions can be funny sometimes.  Their PITCH was much better two months into the season when the Cubs last played them.  At +16 they’re leading contender for a wild card playoff spot.   Seasonal numbers are interesting although current roster value matters more.  Let’s hear what the people think of these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_03_2:10_PM CHN MIL

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.592 ] < 0.550 > -122 $181
STARTAWAY 1.64(0.548) Cole_Hamels_TOT TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.444 ] < 0.472 > +112 $212
STARTHOME -1.13(0.381) Zach_Davies_MIL TIER 4

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 4 / Relief 2 == 0.545 CHN 4.77 runs
MIL Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.455 MIL 4.31 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    99 105
MIL    96 89

Both lines a clear discard skipping down to the Expected Value table.   The break even probabilities match Tier Combo simulations almost exactly.  Cole Hamels has been a clear Tier 1 pitcher ever since coming to the Cubs.   This would give the Cubs more of an edge but certainly not enough for them to become a betting opportunity.

This model does not take into account trends because 1) it’s  too complicated violating the Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) philosophy behind this data model and 2) forecasting based on trends tends to veer into witchcraft or astrology.  Forecasting trends is what keeps the hotels in Las Vegas filled with gamblers.   The trend is your friend, don’t buck the trend I heard once upon a time from a Merryll Lynch broker.  Let’s hope Hamels doesn’t buck his trend today.

The difference between home field advantage and home field exuberance is still unknown.  DeltaWAA data shows no home field advantage for regular season.  There might be/probably is for playoff season which for some teams starts the last two weeks of September.  This will be examined more as we get closer to the playoffs.

MIL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 MIL 6.57
SP 3 Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.48
SP 2 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 2.21
SP 3 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 0.00
SP 3 Junior_Guerra_MIL -0.50
SP 2 Wade_Miley_MIL 2.58
RP 2 MIL 6.97

The MIL lineup used for this snapshot is their last lineup on 9/2/2018.  Their normal lineup is Tier 1/2, about equal with Cubs, which means TC simulations would narrow in favor of MIL.  The way this models handles day to day needs work in the off season.  Zach Davies isn’t listed in the above because our source roster data lags sometimes.   The above pitching goes from average to above average, not bad.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+033+ 4.01 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+053+ 3.28 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.24 Joakim_Soria_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Xavier_Cedeno_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Corbin_Burnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.59 Jordan_Lyles_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.80 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -1.13 Zach_Davies_MIL PITCH
-063- -2.37 Matt_Albers_MIL PITCH
Total 7.09

Lots and lots of relievers due to September call ups.  Oh, there’s Zach Davies.  Matt Albers had a good season with Washington last year.  The top of this relief staff is pretty decent.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_1_7:05_PM
-1.07 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 513
5.17 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 529
5.82 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 457
2.44 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B-2B 498
1.45 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 363
1.26 Mike_Moustakas_TOT 3B-DH 536
0.04 Jonathan_Schoop_TOT 2B-SS 445
-1.13 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 295
-0.73 Chase_Anderson_MIL PR 44
Total WAA=13.23 PA=3680 WinPct=0.569

The above shows their Tier 1 lineup from 9/1/2018.  The current snapshot used for simulation was from yesterday which was Tier 3.  Their lineup which I just received is +8.00 which is Tier 3 now.   More on some of the issues in how the simulation sausage is made coming soon.  The Cubs may see the above lineup sometime these next couple of days.

Their lineup has two top 25 MLB players (bold blue) and two top 200 (blue).  This adds up to a top tier lineup which is much better than their BAT in team status based upon seasonal run differential.   Especially near the end of the season roster value can deviate significantly with run differential.

That is all for now.  If lines go haywire another post will be made.  There might be a where are they now Part 4 to the minor league season coming if I get motivated.  Until then ….