Cubs Nationals Matchup

Missed the first game which the Cubs pulled out in extra innings.  Let’s look at this Nationals team again.

WAS Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
14.4 38.9 527 460 59 56 13.6 0.1 WAS 8/11/2018
28.6 15.3 653 591 69 72 16.9 1.1 WAS 9/7/2018

Cubs played these Nationals about a month ago.  Since then their pitching tanked and BAT compensated for that but they still lost 6 games going from +3 to -3 in the win/loss column.  UR up again which is good.

Losing 6 games with an average run differential for that period could be due to lack of motivation from giving up playoff hopes and becoming sellers in the trade market.  This has to be a very real phenomenon but it’s difficult to model mathematically.  Perhaps something to look into in the off season.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_07_7:05_PM CHN WAS

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.576 ] < 0.574 > -135 $174
STARTAWAY 2.14(0.561) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME WAS [ 0.442 ] < 0.444 > +125 $225
STARTHOME 0.00(NA) Joe_Ross_WAS TIER NA

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 29 WINPCT 0.639 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> WAS Starter 3 / Relief 4 == NO_DATA CHN 4.79 runs
WAS Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 3 == NO_DATA WAS 4.44 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    0 0
WAS    0 0

Washington pitching someone who hasn’t pitched this season (i.e. new guy) so entire game a discard.  Based on runs WAS would be favored but that’s assuming Ross is an average Tier 3 pitcher — which we don’t know.    Lester had a bad July but decent August.  He’s a Tier 2, above average pitcher right now.

WAS Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 WAS 9.95
SP 4 Erick_Fedde_WAS -1.45
SP 3 Tanner_Roark_WAS -0.38
SP 3 Joe_Ross_WAS 0.00
SP 1 Max_Scherzer_WAS 8.38
SP 3 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 0.23
RP 4 WAS -2.92

According to this model it’s between Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer for NL Cy Young.  Relief staff tanked which probably led to the negative PITCH value in the last month.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+187+ 1.68 Matt_Grace_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.67 Wander_Suero_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Tim_Collins_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.19 Justin_Miller_WAS PITCH
XXXXX 0.15 Koda_Glover_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Kyle_McGowin_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 Jimmy_Cordero_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Austen_Williams_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -1.05 Austin_Voth_WAS PITCH
XXXXX -1.16 Greg_Holland_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -1.36 Jefry_Rodriguez_WAS PITCH
-160- -1.53 Sammy_Solis_WAS PITCH
Total -2.89

This is an expanded roster relief staff.  Their highest guy is barely in the top 200 so it will probably still be considered Tier 4 even if the bottom half of this list was lopped off.

WAS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_6_7:05_PM
0.13 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF-LF 310
0.29 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 627
4.56 Bryce_Harper_WAS RF-CF 588
2.44 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 492
2.90 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 397
1.78 Mark_Reynolds_WAS 1B-3B 186
-0.36 Wilmer_Difo_WAS 2B-3B 392
-0.97 Spencer_Kieboom_WAS CR 107
-0.82 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PR 39
Total WAA=9.95 PA=3138 WinPct=0.561

League average lineup is now +3.49 and the Tier 2/3 border is +7.57 thus this is a Tier 2 above average lineup.  Cubs lineup yesterday was +8.90.

That is all for now.  Until then ….