Missed the first game which the Cubs pulled out in extra innings. Let’s look at this Nationals team again.
WAS Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.4 | 38.9 | 527 | 460 | 59 | 56 | 13.6 | 0.1 | WAS | 8/11/2018 |
| 28.6 | 15.3 | 653 | 591 | 69 | 72 | 16.9 | 1.1 | WAS | 9/7/2018 |
Cubs played these Nationals about a month ago. Since then their pitching tanked and BAT compensated for that but they still lost 6 games going from +3 to -3 in the win/loss column. UR up again which is good.
Losing 6 games with an average run differential for that period could be due to lack of motivation from giving up playoff hopes and becoming sellers in the trade market. This has to be a very real phenomenon but it’s difficult to model mathematically. Perhaps something to look into in the off season.
Ouija Board
DATE 09_07_7:05_PM CHN WAS
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.576 ] < 0.574 > -135 $174
STARTAWAY 2.14(0.561) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME WAS [ 0.442 ] < 0.444 > +125 $225
STARTHOME 0.00(NA) Joe_Ross_WAS TIER NA
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 29 WINPCT 0.639 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> WAS Starter 3 / Relief 4 == NO_DATA CHN 4.79 runs
WAS Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 3 == NO_DATA WAS 4.44 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 0 0
WAS 0 0
Washington pitching someone who hasn’t pitched this season (i.e. new guy) so entire game a discard. Based on runs WAS would be favored but that’s assuming Ross is an average Tier 3 pitcher — which we don’t know. Lester had a bad July but decent August. He’s a Tier 2, above average pitcher right now.
WAS Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 2 | WAS | 9.95 | |
| SP | 4 | Erick_Fedde_WAS | -1.45 | |
| SP | 3 | Tanner_Roark_WAS | -0.38 | |
| SP | 3 | Joe_Ross_WAS | 0.00 | |
| SP | 1 | Max_Scherzer_WAS | 8.38 | |
| SP | 3 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 0.23 | |
| RP | 4 | WAS | -2.92 |
According to this model it’s between Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer for NL Cy Young. Relief staff tanked which probably led to the negative PITCH value in the last month.
WAS Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +187+ | 1.68 | Matt_Grace_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Wander_Suero_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Tim_Collins_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.19 | Justin_Miller_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.15 | Koda_Glover_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.10 | Kyle_McGowin_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Jimmy_Cordero_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.38 | Austen_Williams_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.05 | Austin_Voth_WAS | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.16 | Greg_Holland_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.36 | Jefry_Rodriguez_WAS | PITCH | |
| -160- | -1.53 | Sammy_Solis_WAS | PITCH | |
| Total | -2.89 |
This is an expanded roster relief staff. Their highest guy is barely in the top 200 so it will probably still be considered Tier 4 even if the bottom half of this list was lopped off.
WAS Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Sep_6_7:05_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF-LF | 310 | |
| 0.29 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 627 | |
| 4.56 | Bryce_Harper_WAS | RF-CF | 588 | |
| 2.44 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 492 | |
| 2.90 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 397 | |
| 1.78 | Mark_Reynolds_WAS | 1B-3B | 186 | |
| -0.36 | Wilmer_Difo_WAS | 2B-3B | 392 | |
| -0.97 | Spencer_Kieboom_WAS | CR | 107 | |
| -0.82 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | PR | 39 | |
| Total | WAA=9.95 | PA=3138 | WinPct=0.561 |
League average lineup is now +3.49 and the Tier 2/3 border is +7.57 thus this is a Tier 2 above average lineup. Cubs lineup yesterday was +8.90.
That is all for now. Until then ….