Jaime Garcia

Apparently the Cubs acquired a new pitcher, Jaime Garcia, who starts today.  Jon Lester pitched yesterday which got rained out.   Here’s what the Ouija Board says about game 1 of this double header.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_08_3:05_PM CHN WAS

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.444 ] < 0.370 > +170 $270
STARTAWAY -3.02(0.317) Jaime_Garcia_TOR TIER 5
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME WAS [ 0.592 ] < 0.655 > -190 $152
STARTHOME 8.38(0.695) Max_Scherzer_WAS TIER 1

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 29 WINPCT 0.639 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> WAS Starter 1 / Relief 4 == 0.427 CHN 4.37 runs
WAS Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 5 / Relief 3 == 0.573 WAS 4.81 runs


EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    115 173
WAS    87 55

Jaime Garcia still has a TOR tag because he hasn’t played with the Cubs yet.  I have no idea how Cubs acquired him.  He’s currently considered a bottom tier starter, Tier 5 going against the possible NL Cy Young winner today.  The market is favoring WAS at almost 2-1 or 0.655 break even probability.  Cubs are at 0.370 break even.  TC simulations give Washington an advantage but not nearly that high.

This makes the Cubs a betting opportunity today.   Cubs are fielding a weak Tier 3 lineup for game 1 since Baez in on the bench.  DeltaWAA EV is huge at 173 but this only looks at differences between seasonal wins and losses between the two teams.  The relationship between deltaWAA EV and TCsim EV is still a work in progress.

But who is Jaime Garcia?  Here is his career according to this data model.

Jaime Garcia Career

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2008 -0.5 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH XXXXX
2010 5.1 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH +033+
2011 1.6 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH +200+
2012 0.1 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH XXXXX
2013 0.4 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH XXXXX
2014 -0.4 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH XXXXX
2015 4.5 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH +036+
2016 -2.0 Jaime_Garcia_SLN PITCH -125-
2017 0.1 Jaime_Garcia_ATL PITCH XXXXX
2017 0.1 Jaime_Garcia_MIN PITCH XXXXX
2017 -0.4 Jaime_Garcia_NYA PITCH XXXXX
2018 -3.0 Jaime_Garcia_TOR PITCH -033-
Total 5.6

He has an above average career with this year being a career worst for him so far.  He came out of the Cardinals organization and bounced around.  Perhaps the Cubs acquired him under the rule:  You can’t have too many pitchers.  He certainly has upside potential but unsure what the Cubs have planned for him.  If he came over in September he won’t qualify for playoffs As Far As I Know that’s even if they can trust him.  We’ll see.  Until then ….